Tagged: Padres
MLB Power Rankings: July 2, 2012
credit: SBNation.com
By Baseball Focus Staff
The scorching Rangers stay on top for a second week, again the unanimous selection among the Baseball Focus staff. The Yankees, however, are closing in fast.
Top 10 (Overall record, Last 10)
1) Texas Rangers (50-30, 7-3) – Just in case there was any doubt as to who the best team in baseball is, Texas has gone a blistering 18-3 since June 8. You hear all about Josh Hamilton’s great season so far, but Adrian Beltre (.343, 4 home runs and 18 RBI in June) has been at the heart of the Rangers’ hot streak. (PO)
2) New York Yankees (48-30, 7-3) – New York took a hit to its rotation this past week when CC Sabathia and Andy Pettitte both headed to the DL. While CC’s stint is likely more precautionary, Pettitte’s is expected to last well into August. The Yankees have suffered from injuries this past season as much as any other team, losing the likes of a starting OF (Gardner), their closer (Rivera), a top-to-middle-of-rotation arm (Pineda), and other valuable pieces . That being said, the Yanks find themselves just 2 games back of the Rangers for the MLB’s best record, and with a nice little 6-game cushion atop the AL East. A 7 game upcoming road trip through Tampa and Boston could propel the Yanks to perhaps an insurmountable division lead or bring them back to the pack. (RB)
3) Washington Nationals (45-32, 5-5) – We can ooh and aah over the Nationals’ pitching gawdy-ness all we want – but more needs to be made of their offense’s mediocre start. Sure, we know all about Bryce Harper, but, on the whole, the team’s hitters have been consistently middle of the pack. They’re 22nd in runs scored (316), 20th in batting average (.248), 22nd in on base percentage (.312) and 14th in slugging (.407). If the team has plans for deep into October, they need to be more selective at the plate. (SN)
4) San Francisco Giants (45-35, 7-3) – The Giants have certainly taken advantage of the Dodgers’ disastrous latter half of June. While Los Angeles has gone 2-8 over its past 10 games, San Francisco is 7-3. Melky Cabrera, Pablo Sandoval and Buster Posey have all been raking for a team that, despite Tim Lincecum’s struggles, has a collective 3.37 ERA. With that said, adding a little punch to this lineup at the trade deadline could go a long way toward winning the West.
5) Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (44-35, 7-3) – It’s tough to imagine how deep a hole the talented Angels we’re in to start the season, but they appear to have righted the ship. With 15 wins in their last 20, the Halos have closed the gap on the Rangers to just 5 games. The Angels pitching staff is so well rounded that each of their top 3 leads the team in major categories – Weaver in ERA (2.31), Haren in SO (81) and Wilson in wins (9). (RB)
6) Chicago White Sox (42-37, 6-4) – One of the surprise division leaders heading into the All Star break, the White Sox will be tested immediately after, going on the road for 16 of their first 19 games in the second half. Furthermore, 10 of those games are against the Red Sox, Tigers and Rangers. We’ll get a great look at this team’s makeup through that stretch. (SN)
7) Los Angeles Dodgers (44-36, 2-8) – The Dodgers rank 24th in the majors in runs scored, but had been embarrassingly anemic before last night’s eight-run outburst. Between June 23-29, L.A. scored six runs in seven games and in the process lost its NL West lead to the Giants. That type of poor offense makes you wonder why the Dodgers didn’t make a harder push to get Kevin Youkilis on the cheap.
8) New York Mets (43-37, 5-5) – The Mets are perhaps baseball’s most overachieving team at the midway point of the season. New York has generated 53 quality starts from their staff this season in 80 total games played, which ranks best in the majors. David Wright seems to have fully recovered from concussion issues that slowed him down the last two years, and is on pace for career numbers in BA, OPS, and RBI. Furthermore, the Mets are coming off a 3-game sweep of the Dodgers in LA, where they allowed just 2 runs in the entire series. Two runs! (RB)
9) Cincinnati Reds (43-35, 5-5) – Tell me again why Johnny Cueto ISN’T on the NL All Star Team? All he’s done is compile a 9-4 record, alongside a 2.26 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 79 Ks in 107.2 innings pitched for the first-place Reds. His nine wins are T-6 in the NL, his ERA fourth and his IP 7th. Apparently Tony LaRussa really does have something against his former division rival. (SN)
10) Pittsburgh Pirates (42-36, 6-4) – Tell me if you’ve heard this before about an NL team: Led by James McDonald and A.J. Burnett, the Pirates can pitch but have a lot of trouble at the plate. Once you get past Andrew McCutchen (.993 OPS), the lineup thins out and Pittsburgh is going to have another second-half slide if it continues to not score runs (27th) and not get on base (dead last with a .294 OBP).
(Also receiving votes: Red Sox, Orioles)
Bottom Five (Overall record, Last 10)
26) Seattle Mariners (34-47, 4-6) – Seattle continues to struggle offensively with a team BA of .233 which is 3rd worst in all of baseball. Producing runs is also a difficulty for a team that has scored more than 6 runs in a game just twice since June 8th. With a team payroll of around $85 million and a starter in Felix Hernandez due more than $19m+ in each of the next two seasons, nearly a 1/4 of the team’s whole payroll, perhaps the time to move on from King Felix is now. Certainly the M’s can lose 90 games without Hernandez and save the $50 million+ due. Might a package centered around Jacoby Ellsbury be a good fit to replace the aging and likely departing Ichiro? Although Ellsbury is under control for just one season past 2011, the M’s are likely to command a player which they would control for a longer period of time. (RB)
27) Houston Astros (32-47, 4-6) – Getting swept by the Cubs this past weekend stings. Badly. The team only scored 2 runs in the 3-game sweep, being thorough dominated by Paul Maholm and Travis Wood. Attempting to trade Carlos Lee is a step in the right direction, as is locking their up-the-middle combo of Jed Lowrie and Jose Altuve. Trading Wandy Rodriguez before the deadline is probably their next-best move. (SN)
28) Colorado Rockies (30-48, 4-6) – Switching between a four and seven-man rotation is never a recipe for success, especially when your team owns a 5.37 ERA and needs stability. As Mile High fans are so used to by now, the Rockies can at least hit well; they rank third in batting average (.270) and slugging (.451).
29) San Diego Padres (30-50, 6-4) – If it wasn’t for Chase Headley, there would likely be no reason to even watch the Padres. Headley is tops on the team in BA, HR, RBI, RS, and OPS, but isn’t helping an offensively challenged team that is 30th in RS. Twenty-three-year-old rookie catcher Yasmani Grandal hit a pair of home runs — one from each side of the plate — for his first two major-league hits in a recent 8-4 win of the Rockies. So, there’s that. (RB)
30) Chicago Cubs (29-49, 5-5) – The Cubs need to find ways to score runs. They’re currently 29th in the majors with 286 runs scored, but Alfonso Soriano and Starlin Castro’s RBIs combined represent one third of this total. Add in Bryan LaHair and the portion is closer to 40%. With Anthony Rizzo now up, perhaps the offense will start to produce more, but they still need more punch. (SN)
(Also receiving votes: Phillies)
Compiled by Seth Needle, Pat Ouellette, Roei Biberstain, Ben Lynch and Max Leonard
MLB Power Rankings: June 25, 2012
credit: Star-Telegram.com
By Baseball Focus Staff
With the first unanimous selection this year among the BF crew, the Rangers have regained the top spot after a three-week hiatus.
Top 10 (Overall record, Last 10)
1) Texas Rangers (45-28, 8-2) – As if baseball’s deepest team needed any reinforcements, last week featured the arrival of Roy Oswalt, who showed no rust from his hiatus, going 7 strong in his first start of the season. Interleague treated the Rangers well, as they finished a 15-game stretch vs. NL opponents at 12-3. Offensively, the Rangers are tops in baseball in the four major hitting categories (RS, BA, OBP, SLG). (RB)
2) New York Yankees (43-28, 7-3) – Though he sports only 6-7 record, the Yankees have to be pleased with Hiroki Kuroda’s consistency. The right-hander has allowed more than four runs only twice all season and more than three a mere four times. (PO)
3) Los Angeles Dodgers (43-30, 3-7) – The Dodgers endured an embarrassing sweep at the hands of the lowly Oakland A’s – a series in which they scored only 2 total runs – en route to a 1-5 AL road trip. Whereas any normal team’s hitting would improve with the addition of a DH, Dodgers DHs are actually hitting .050 points lower than their pitchers have on the year. Added fun fact: In the month of June, superstar sluggers Trevor Plouffe and Brandon Moss have more home runs than the ENTIRE LA lineup. Even a broken and hobbled Matt Kemp would be an improvement at this point. (ML)
4) Washington Nationals (41-29, 4-6) – Through 14 starts, Stephen Strasburg has pitched 84 innings, just about half of the inning count the team reportedly wants to hold him to. With the Nats leading the NL East, does the team keep these plans. Furthermore, do they allow Strasburg to pitch in the All-Star Game? Does his appearance count against the yearly inning total? (SN)
5) Cincinnati Reds (39-32, 5-5) – Joey Votto is a man amongst boys. The NL MVP candidate is hitting .359 and has driven in as many runs as he has scored, 47. The Reds continue to surprise with a pitching staff comprised of relative no names, holding a 3.57 staff ERA, good for 8th in the majors. We should know a bit more about this Reds team in 10 days or so after a make-or-break West Coast trip that includes sets against NL West powers – the Giants and the Dodgers. (RB)
6) San Francisco Giants (40-33, 4-6) – Somehow, the Giants have survived the inexplicably lousy start of Tim Lincecum (2-8, 6.07 ERA), and are now making moves on first in the West behind tremendous pitching and a steady, albeit thoroughly unspectacular lineup. They have the goods to make the playoffs, but if they want another ring, they will need their ace back. Who out there would trust the likes of Barry Zito or Ryan Vogelsong in a clutch playoff game? (ML)
7) Baltimore Orioles (41-31, 5-5) – Losing Nolan Reimold for the season (neck) isn’t a surprise considering he’s had nerve issues for months. But that doesn’t make it less painful for a Baltimore offense that, beyond Adam Jones, has struggled mightily of late. (PO)
8) Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (40-33, 7-3) – Did anyone forecasting AL ROY before the season list any player but Yu Darvish? We’re all going to be wrong – Mike Trout might have already locked up locked the award. He leads all qualifying rookies in BA, OBP, Slugging, OPS, steals, hits, walks and Ks. His .338 average is also good for second in the AL, while his 21 swipes lead the league. (SN)
9) Tampa Bay Rays (40-32, 5-5) – Tampa is staying in the AL East race with great starting pitching, as its 3.50 ERA is fourth in baseball and .235 batting average against is third. With Jeremy Hellickson (shoulder soreness) being replaced by prospect flameout Chris Archer, the Rays’ offense (.696 OPS) need to pick up the slack. (PO)
10) Chicago White Sox (38-34, 4-6) – Anyone else want to see Kevin Youkilis vs. A.J. Pierzynski fist-fight? In all seriousness, bringing Youkilis aboard for peanuts was a great, low-risk move for a team that had a great late-May run but has started to come back to earth of late. Youkilis’s best days are likely behind him, but he’ll get enough at bats to help Chicago.
(Also receiving votes: Mets, Indians)
Bottom Five (Overall record, Last 10)
26) Houston Astros (30-42, 4-6) – One would think a 5.80 June ERA would absolutely bury a team who had previously been pitching to a figure well under 4.00 for the previous two months. However, the Astros have proved that is not the case, and that they are just as proficient at losing, regardless of how their pitching staff has been doing. Dallas Keuchel, that killer 1.29 start to your career may be impressive, but don’t expect that to translate to too many wins. (ML)
27) Minnesota Twins (29-42, 4-6) – Trevor Plouffe, are you kidding me? After hitting 10 HRs so far in June, he’s now tied with Miguel Cabrera with 15, more than Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Nelson Cruz, Carlos Pena and Adrian Gonzalez. Even more astonishing, Plouffe had only 10 career dingers entering 2012. He’s certainly one of the few bright spots for the Twins so far this season. (SN)
28) Colorado Rockies (27-44, 3-7) – For a team that’s dead-last in their division and only 2.5 games clear of the worst record in the majors, the Rockies are third overall in slugging (.450), fourth in runs scored (355) and batting average (.267), and seventh in OBP (.330). All of this without Troy Tulowitzki, who’s done until at least August, if not for the season. (SN)
29) San Diego Padres (26-47, 4-6) – It really is getting harder by the day to recognize this roster. Despite being a small sample size, Jason Marquis’s 26 strikeouts and 2.05 ERA in 26 innings and is a bright spot on an otherwise-dismal squad. (PO)
30) Chicago Cubs (24-48, 3-7) – Aside from bringing up Anthony Rizzo today, not much positive can be said about these Cubs. A mere 10 road wins to this point in the season, the second-fewest total in baseball, won’t get it done. With an added Wild Card slot for the upcoming postseason, more teams find themselves in the mix and declining to move assists, rather looking to bring them in. The Cubs have positioned themselves to be in a good spot with Matt Garza being perhaps baseball’s top available starter and Reed Johnson, being perhaps one of the top utility OF’s on the market. (RB)
(Also receiving votes: Mariners)
Compiled by Seth Needle, Pat Ouellette, Roei Biberstain, Ben Lynch and Max Leonard
MLB Power Rankings: June 19, 2012
Photo Credit: ESPN
By Baseball Focus Staff
Despite the surging Yankees, the Dodgers hold on to the League’s top spot for the second-consecutive week.
Top 10 (Overall record, Last 10)
1) Los Angeles Dodgers (42-25, 6-4)- Five of their six losses in the month of June have been one run games, five in which they scored 3 runs or less, two of which they lost in the ninth and one in which they were no-hit. Their starting pitching has been dominant enough to keep them atop the majors, but it’s hard not to think of what could be if their bats were plating more than 4.2 runs game this month. (ML)
2) New York Yankees (41-25, 10-0) – 10 wins in a row, and 14 of 16 overall (before last night’s game). Ivan Nova has solidified the top of the rotation with a team leading 9 wins. Curtis Granderson is on pace for 45 home runs and a +56 run differential is second only to the Rangers in all of baseball. Robertson’s return from the DL this week adds another quality arm to an already strong bullpen even without the services of Mo Rivera. With the financial flexibility to pick up a power hitting corner outfielder, things are certainly heating up in the Bronx. Carlos Gonzalez is a guy to keep an eye on. (RB)
3) Texas Rangers (41-27, 8-2) – The Rangers’ staff isn’t just good, it’s exceedingly confident. Scott Feldman has thrown all of the team’s intentional walks – two – both against the Mariners (Dustin Ackely and Ichiro no-less). No other team has given out fewer than five free passes. (BL)
4) Washington Nationals (38-26, 6-4) Shake it off, Nats. Your recent sweep at the hands of the Yankees is just a minor speed bump in the road (plus, the Bombers just aren’t losing these days.) Sure, Michael Morse hasn’t been what you’ve expected (.211 / .246 / .281), but your pitching staff is still the best in the entire league (3.00 ERA), .11 runs/9 IP better than the second-best (Dodgers). (SN)
5) Cincinnati Reds (38-28, 7-3) – The NL’s hottest team has been powered by the league’s hottest hitter. Joey Votto has put together an inhuman month of June, to the tune of .484/.564/.844. His only fault? He was caught stealing 3 of 4 times. I think the Reds can live with that. (ML)
6) Baltimore Orioles (39-28, 7-3) – The O’s have been expected to falter with just about every passing week, yet here they are deep into June just 2.5 games back in the AL East. 7-3 in their last 10, but more impressively 20-14 on the road thus far this season, are the birds with consecutive series wins over the Red Sox, Phillies and Braves. Jason Hammel has emerged and is bettering his career ERA by nearly two runs to this point in the season, currently standing at 2.87. Adam Jones is baseball’s forgotten AL MVP candidate leading the O’s in Avg, HR, RBI, runs and OPS. (RB)
7) Tampa Bay Rays (37-29, 6-4) – While showing flashes of why he was such a highly touted prospect, Matt Moore has been fairly inconsistent all year. Yet, if the handsome rookie can consistently pitch as well as he did against the Marlins on Friday, the Rays may have the best rotation in the AL. (BL)
8) San Francisco Giants (38-30, 5-5) – Matt Cain is finally getting the run support he had dreamed of / deserved. After finishing in the bottom 6 in run support three times in the previous five seasons, he’s now No. 60 with 5.85 runs per game. His 9-2 record and 2.34 ERA has him on the short list of NL Cy Young candidates right now. (SN)
9) Los Angeles Angels (36-32, 7-3) – The Angels have finally turned a corner, and there are no shortage of catalysts. Albert Pujols is beginning to look like the Pujols of old, young guns Mike Trout and Mark Trumbo have already entered conversations of the game’s elite, and fireballer Ernesto Frieri has answered the team’s closer woes. With Jered Weaver returning soon, the Angels appear poised to make their rightful push for the AL West throne. (ML)
10) Chicago White Sox (35-32, 3-7) – Only one team in the AL Central has a plus run differential, and it’s not the power hitting Tigers. While under .500 at home, the White Sox are 6 games over on the road. While just 3-7 in their last 10, five of those losses coming by 2 runs or less. Also, raise your hand if you knew Paul Konerko has the AL’s highest batting average by nearly 30 points, while Adam Dunn leads the AL with 23 HR’s. (RB)
(Also receiving votes: Pirates, Cardinals)
Bottom Five (Overall record, Last 10)
26) Minnesota Twins (26-39, 5-5) – Nick Blackburn, Francisco Liriano and Carl Pavano have pitched a combined 170 innings and given up 129 runs. Only 123 were earned, though. (BL)
27) Colorado Rockies (25-40, 1-9) – The Rockies have cut their Opening Day starter (Jamie Moyer), and are currently in talks to trade their No. 2 (Jeremy Guthrie) to the Blue Jays. Their No. 3? On the DL in the minor leagues (Jhoulys Chacin). Not a lot of bright spots for the Rockies’ pitching staff thus far in 2012. (SN)
28) Houston Astros (28-39, 4-6) – Woof … when your two best players are Jed Lowrie and Wandy Rodriguez, times are tough. At least they can spare themselves the sleepless nights wondering how they have only managed 5 wins in June. On a positive note though, their AAA team is dominating Pacific Coast League. That may not seem like much, but a fan has to have something to clutch to. (ML)
29) San Diego Padres (24-44, 5-5) – San Diego continues to be baseball’s most offensively challenged team. Through their 1st 68 games of 2012, the Padres have hit just 36 home runs, seven fewer than the next-lowest team total in MLB (43 by the San Francisco Giants), and haven’t scored more than 5 runs a game since the end of May. A mid-week sweep of the Mariners was San Diego’s first 3-game winning streak of the season. Wrapping up an interleague series against the Rangers will conclude a tough stretch vs AL opponents. On the bright side, opponents are hitting just .247 vs Padres pitching, good for 10th in MLB. (RB)
30) Chicago Cubs (23-44, 4-6) – In what is most likely his last start at Wrigley, Ryan Dempster stymied the Red Sox AND tripled. He’ll be a valuable piece for contender soon. Supposedly, every player on the team is available – let’s see. Starlin Castro would be a steal for some team. Also, it’s Anthony Rizzo time already (23 HRs in AAA). Do it, Cubs. (SN)
(Also receiving votes: Mariners)
Compiled by Seth Needle, Pat Ouellette, Roei Biberstain, Ben Lynch and Max Leonard
MLB Power Rankings: June 13, 2012
via DodgerThoughts.com
By Baseball Focus Staff
The Dodgers have finally knocked the slumping Rangers, now ranked third, off their perch atop the Baseball Focus Power Rankings. Newcomers to the top 10 include the Pirates and Giants.
Top 10 (Overall record, Last 10)
1) Los Angeles Dodgers (40-23, 8-2) – A model of consistency, LA pitchers have maintained a sub 3.30 ERA in each month. Ted Lilly goes down and Nate Eovaldi (1.93 ERA) comes in and doesn’t miss a beat. Even multiple Matt Kemp injuries can’t keep the Dodgers down as they have received surprising production from recent after-thoughts. AJ Ellis, Jerry Hairson Jr. and Bobby Abreu are all currently hitting over .300. (ML)
2) Washington Nationals (37-23, 8-2) – The Nationals have won eight of 10, and the rate of their maturation should be scary for the NL. After blowing out the Red Sox on Friday night, the Nats pitched well and hit in the clutch over the next two games (both winnable for the Sox) to complete a Fenway sweep. Additionally, the Nats have the best Win% in the league when scoring 3 runs or less. Meanwhile, the Sox are 28th (2-23). (PO)
3) Texas Rangers (36-26, 5-5) – Has the Yu Darvish luster already begun to fade? After starting the season 4-0 with a 2.18 ERA, he’s gone 3-4 since, giving up 3+ earned runs in five of those starts. He did strike out at least seven in four of those starts, however. (SN)
4) New York Yankees (36-25, 9-1) – The inevitable point in the season where the Yankees decide to stop coasting and play like the world-beaters they are has come. The lineup will always put the ball in the bleachers, but the secret to their recent rise to the top of the East is a 2.11 June ERA. (ML)
5) Tampa Bay Rays (35-26, 5-5) – Joe Maddon can do no wrong. Only he can bat the likes of Drew Sutton and Jeff Keppinger, lead off with slow footed Carlos Pena, user a closer who hasn’t had a sub 1.47 whip since 2007 in Fernando Rodney and STILL win games by the buckets in the ruthless and cannibalistic AL East. (ML)
6) Chicago White Sox (34-27, 6-4) – After a torrid stretch, the South Siders have gone 6-4 over their last 10 to let the hot Indians back into the AL Central mix. A big concern has to be the regression of Philip Humber (5.92 ERA) of late, as he’s given up five runs in three of his past four starts. (PO)
7) Atlanta Braves (34-28, 6-4) – After losing seven straight just two weeks ago, the team has snapped back into form, sweeping the Marlins in Miami and taking two of three in Toronto. With much-heralded prospect Julio Teheran finally coming up, their rotation (middle of the pack in ERA, WHIP, BAA) could get the boost it’s been lacking recently. (SN)
8) Baltimore Orioles (35-26, 6-4) – Adam Jones continues to show he’s worth the big contract extension he just signed. Currently, the All-Star center fielder is in the top 10 in the AL in batting average (.300), tied for fourth in home runs (17) and top 15 in RBI (37). Add in his nine SB so far, and Jones is off to his best start by a wide margin. (SN)
9) Pittsburgh Pirates (32-28, 7-3) – How does a team overcome a league worst .636 OPS and still achieve top ten status? Lights out pitching (team 3.25 ERA) and a knack for keeping those inevitably meager leads (a league-leading 85% save conversion rate). Their bats need to come alive fast to maintain their winning ways, but solid pitching has won them 12 of their last 15 and a share of the NL Central lead. (ML)
10) San Francisco Giants (35-27, 8-2) – Hard to imagine Giants fans saying “Watch out for Vogelsong this year!” during spring training. But it’s been Ryan Vogelsong (2.26 ERA) serving as the staff ace while two-time Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum has been nothing short of abysmal. Lincecum has lost nine straight and has allowed fewer than four runs only twice since May 4. (PO)
(Also receiving votes: Reds, Marlins, Angels, Cardinals)
Bottom Five (Overall record, Last 10)
26) Houston Astros (26-35, 3-7) – Think the Astros are happy about their upcoming move to the AL West in 2013? Since 2007, the ‘Stros are a combined 9-21 against the Rangers, going 4-14 in the previous three seasons. (SN)
27) Minnesota Twins (25-35, 8-2) – Scott Diamond (1.61 ERA) is the only Twins starter with an ERA lower than 6. Considering its generally anemic offense, it’s amazing that Minnesota is 8-2 over its past 10 and has won 25 games to this point. (PO)
28) Colorado Rockies (24-36, 3-7) – How do they follow up a 7-1 run in which they take two of three from the kings of the West in the Dodgers? By, of course, promptly losing six in a row. Their team ERA has risen with every month and bringing back Jeff Francis (8 runs in 3.1 IP) is not the solution. (ML)
29) Chicago Cubs (21-40, 3-7) – Who told Alfonso Soriano that it’s 2002? Among the sport’s biggest contract albatrosses, Soriano had a solid May (seven home runs) and has remained hot in June with five home runs. (PO)
30) San Diego Padres (21-41, 4-6) – Trade him or keep him? That’s the major question for the Padres with resurgent slugger Carlos Quentin. Being from the area, the team may be compelled to finally extend one of their local sluggers. But if the price is right, anyone on the team is expendable. (SN)
(Also receiving votes: Royals, Mariners, Athletics)
Compiled by Seth Needle, Pat Ouellette, Roei Biberstain, Ben Lynch and Max Leonard
MLB Power Rankings: June 5, 2012
Credit: Dallas Morning News
Though they’ve cooled off recently, the Rangers are still ahead of the pack and again earned the top spot in this week’s Baseball Focus Power Rankings. Two new additions to the top 10 are the surging Marlins and Angels.
By Baseball Focus Staff
Top 10 (Overall record, Last 10)
1) Texas Rangers (32-23, 4-6) – The Rangers continue to hammer the ball and lead baseball in just about all major team hitting categories (runs, batting average, slugging percentage and OBP). Before last night’s 12-1 loss to the A’s, Texas salvaged a game after dropping two to the Angels and four in a row overall to AL West opponents. That was the team’s first four-game losing streak of the season, but the next 15 games will relatively-weak NL opponents. (RB)
2) Los Angeles Dodgers (34-21, 4-6) – The Dodgers are 12-3 against Giants, Pirates, Cardinals, Braves and Nationals. They have a 21-18 record against the rest of the MLB. Which playoff hopeful wants to see them in October? (BL)
3) Washington Nationals (30-22, 5-5) – Their pitching is still rolling, but their lack of hitting is starting to catch up to them. Can the return of slugger Michael Morse be the answer? (ML)
4) Chicago White Sox (31-23, 9-1) – Pale hose starter and converted reliever Chris Sale has been stellar since May began: 6-1 record, sub-2 ERA and 43 strikeouts over 40.2 IP. Are you watching, Daniel Bard and Joba Chamberlain? (PO)
5) Baltimore Orioles (30-24, 2-8) – Here comes the dreaded swoon that every “expert” in baseball warned you about. The once-streaking O’s have now lost eight of their past 10, recently dropping out of first in the AL East. They should hold their breath that All-Star OF Adam Jones (hands, wrists) isn’t serious injured. (SN)
6) Miami Marlins (31-23, 7-3) – Carlos Zambrano’s home run off of Joe Blanton on Sunday was the 24th of his career, tying him with Bob Gibson among pitchers. Amazing to think these pitchers are now tied for anything in the record books. (SN)
7) New York Yankees (29-24, 7-3) – I bet Andy Pettitte is having a busier spring than he expected. When it’s all said and done, the 40-year-old could help both the Yankees make another postseason run…AND aid federal prosecutors put former teammate Roger Clemens in jail. (BL)
8) Tampa Bay Rays (31-23, 5-5) – Tampa is still treading water, but somehow finds itself atop the AL East while waiting for All-Star third baseman Evan Longoria to return. Scoring runs is not the Rays’ strong suit, with a team batting average of .236, good for 26th overall. After losing four of six to the O’s and streaking White Sox, the Rays will travel to the Bronx for a big three-game set, followed by a cross-state trip to take on the Marlins, who have heated up of late. (RB)
9) Cincinnati Reds (30-23, 6-4) – Despite a 4-2 record, Mat Latos has been extremely hittable for Cincinnati and generally a disappointment. Latos owns a 4.90 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. He’s going to need to pitch closer to the ace the Reds thought they added during the off season to maintain their central lead. (PO)
10) Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (28-28, 7-3) – Jerome Williams is going to become even more important to the Angels if Jered Weaver is out for a prolonged period of time. Williams (6-2, 3.68 ERA) needs to stop putting so many runners on base, though (nine hits and 2.7 walks per nine IP). (SN)
(Also receiving votes: Mets, Indians, Red Sox, Giants )
Bottom Five (Overall record, Last 10)
26) Oakland Athletics (24-31, 2-8) – Even with Josh Reddick’s breakout season (14 HR) and last night’s beatdown of Scott Feldman, the A’s are collectively hitting .209 and slugging .329, both of which are the worst in baseball. Think they’re enjoying having outfielder Yoenis Cespedes back and soon adding Manny Ramirez to the mix? (PO)
27) Houston Astros (23-31, 2-8) – Trading for Mark Melancon (49.50 ERA and demoted to Pawtucket early on) for Jed Lowrie (.291, 9 HR, 23 RBI) is looking pretttayyyy good for the ‘Stros right now.
28) Minnesota Twins (21-33, 6-4) – The Twins have no batters hitting .300 or better, one player with at least 10 home runs and no players with 40 RBIs. To say they’re offensively challenged would actually be paying them a compliment at this point. (SN)
29) Chicago Cubs (18-36, 2-8) – The Cubs continue to not only be in the mix for baseball’s worst team, but also perhaps its most boring. President Theo Epstein denied a report this past week that any Cub, Jeff Samadzjra aside, could be had via trade. With just a 2-8 record in their last 10, Chicago is coming off a four-game sweep by the Giants in which it scored six total runs in the series. May be awfully tough to find a Cub worth dealing for. (RB)
30) San Diego Padres (18-37, 2-8) – After getting swept by the lowly Cubs, scoring one run in three games vs. the Mets doesn’t seem quite so bad. They have scored two or fewer runs in five of their last 10 games. (BL)
(Also receiving votes: Astros, Mariners, Brewers, Mets)
Compiled by Seth Needle, Pat Ouellette, Roei Biberstain, Ben Lynch and Max Leonard
MLB Power Rankings: May 29, 2012
Top 10 (Overall record, Last 10)
1) Texas Rangers (31-18, 7-3) – Josh Hamilton: 20 home runs. The San Diego Padres: 18 four-baggers. Not a bad season from Hamilton so far. (PO)
2) Los Angeles Dodgers (32-16, 7-3) – The Dodgers are a one-man show, right? Try again. The loss of Matt Kemp hasn’t derailed the National League leaders. AJ Ellis is hitting .315 and getting on base at a .437 clip – best among qualified NL catchers. (SN)
3) Washington Nationals (29-19, 6-4) – Gio Gonzalez hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in any start this season en route to a 7-1 record. Opponents are batting just .218 against Washington pitching and scoring fewer than 3 runs/game. (RB)
4) Tampa Bay Rays (29-20, 5-5) – It’s impressive that the Rays have been able to stay near the top of the AL East with their best player and leader, Evan Longoria, on the DL and Carlos Pena slugging a paltry .376. (PO)
5) Baltimore Orioles (29-20, 4-6) – Tommy Hunter’s spot in the rotation may be in question after his latest start (L, 3IP, 5ER). He’s now given up at least 4 ER in 6 of his 10 starts. Perhaps that’s why Dan Duquette is reportedly reaching out to Roy Oswalt. (SN)
6) Chicago White Sox (27-22, 9-1) – Ho-hum. Just a league-leading .395 average and 1.142 OPS for Paul Konerko, who’s been right at the heart of Chicago’s hot 9-1 stretch. (PO)
7) St. Louis Cardinals (27-22, 5-5) – Albert who? Yadier Molina (7 HR, 29 RBI) and Carlos Beltran (15 HR, 41 RBI) are either first or second in both offensive categories among their NL counterparts. (SN)
8) Cincinnati Reds (27-21, 8-2) – Aroldis Chapman you’ve heard of, but relievers Jose Arredondo and Alfredo Simon (2.38 and 1.74 ERAs, respectively) have quietly helped shorten games for the Reds. (PO)
9) New York Yankees (26-22, 6-4) – If Hiroki Kuroda turns in more gems like his most recent against OAK (8IP, 4 H, 0R), and Andy Pettitte continues to turn back the clock to 1998 (2.53 ERA through 3 starts), it’ll be another division-winning campaign for the Bombers. (SN)
10) Cleveland Indians (27-21, 5-5) – Chris Perez’s 17 saves is tied for most in baseball, while his 1.09 WHIP ranks first amongst AL relievers qualifying. (RB)
(Also receiving votes: Mets, Angels, Astros)
Bottom Five (Overall record, Last 10)
26) Rockies (19-29, 4-6) – Opponents have absolutely been tapping the Rockies, the team’s 5.18 ERA is the worst in the NL, as are their 15 quality starts and .291 batting average against. (SN)
27) Royals (19-28, 4-6) – Eric Hosmer just reached the Mendoza line this week. Despite all the talent found in KC’s lineup, his production is the key to their success. (SN)
28) Twins (16-32, 4-6) – The AL-equivalent of the Rockies, the Twins are 27th or worse in the four major pitching categories: ERA, QS, WHIP & BAA. (RB)
29) Padres (17-33, 3-7) – The squad’s 158 Runs Scored is by far the lowest in all of baseball. (RB)
30) Cubs (16-32, 1-9) – It’s time for Anthony Rizzo (.354/.415/.713, 17 HR, 46 RBI in AAA PCL) to get the call. (SN)
(Also receiving votes: Astros, Mariners, Brewers, Mets)
Compiled by Seth Needle, Pat Ouellette, Roei Biberstain, Ben Lynch and Max Leonard
MLB Division Previews: Young talent runs deep in NL West
By Pat Ouellette, Baseball Focus Staff Writer
Team: Arizona Diamondbacks
Projected finish: First
Season outlook: New baseball managers don’t very often affect their teams the way Kirk Gibson did with the Diamondbacks last season. After failing to reach 90 wins since 2007, Arizona was the darlings of the NL in 2011 with 94 victories and an NL West title. Gibson was able to harness the potential of this young, talented group and the Diamondbacks now carry high expectations heading into 2012.
Big things are expected from the Arizona squad because of its strong balance of pitching and offense. Keep an eye on 24-year-old Justin Upton, whose 31 home runs, .898 OPS and 21 steals last season were just a preview of things to come. The Diamondbacks also have a stud in 21-game winner Ian Kennedy (8 strikeouts per 9 innings).
The future certainly looks bright for Arizona and management is clearly going hard after a deep playoff run this year. This was evident when they dealt top starting pitching prospect Jarrod Parker to Oakland for veteran starter Trevor Cahill during the offseason.
Why they can win the West: As important as Upton and Kennedy are to Arizona, what sets this team apart from the rest of the division is the depth behind them. Upton is obviously a special talent with enormous expectations heading into 2012, but don’t sleep on the rest of this Diamondback lineup. There is a plethora of potential 20-home-run hitters in Arizona, including: Catcher Miguel Montero, first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, second baseman Aaron Hill, third baseman Ryan Roberts and outfielders Chris Young and Jason Kubel.
It’s also easy to focus on Kennedy because he’s the staff leader and among the best pitchers in baseball. However, the rotation behind him isn’t full of slouches. In fact, all four pitchers (Daniel Hudson, Cahill, Joe Saunders and Josh Collmenter) are capable of winning 15+ games with sub-4 ERAs. Add in a now-healthy JJ Putz (45 saves and 0.91 WHIP in 2011) and you start to understand why Arizona won 94 games last season and are again the favorites in 2012.
Why they may falter: For all of Arizona’s great slugging potential on offense, this is a group that strikes out extremely often. Every single one of the players listed above is a 100+ strikeout candidate. This is especially true of second-year player Goldschmidt (53 strikeouts in 156 at bats in 2011), who hasn’t proven he can make contact enough to take advantage of his prodigious power. It’s a concern because if the Diamondbacks are in a tight race with the Giants down the stretch, and end up facing Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner, Arizona can’t always rely on the three-run bomb to save them. The Diamondbacks are going to need to find a way to develop better plate habits, such as working the count, to not only win the division but make it past the first round of the playoffs.
Another concern is how Cahill will adjust to a hitter-friendly ballpark. He was great in 2010 for the A’s, winning 18 games and earning an All Star nod. But he had a rough 2011 with a 12-14 record, 1.43 WHIP and 4.16 ERA. Those numbers are bad on the surface, but even worse when you consider the advantage that the Oakland Coliseum gave Cahill. At home, he had a solid 3.20 ERA and allowed a .257 batting average; however, on the road, his ERA jumped to 5.23 and batters hit .281 off of him. Cahill doesn’t strike out that many batters out (6.37 per 9 last year) and he can’t rely on a huge park anymore, so keep in mind that he may not be the same pitcher in Arizona.
Bold prediction: Justin Upton will finally have his breakout season and contend for the NL MVP. He has the team around him to flourish, and if he can cut down on strikeouts, this could be a monster campaign for Upton. It’s not hyperbole to say he could go 40-40 and win a Gold Glove this year.
Team: San Francisco Giants
Projected finish: Second
Season outlook: Let’s face it. The NL West is still not aesthetically pleasing and will continue to be a grind-it-out division that will likely come down to a September race to the finish. Because of their top-flight starting pitching, the Giants will at the very least compete in the NL West. San Francisco’s triumvirate of Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner is as good as any in the majors, and can carry the Giants through offensive dry spells (of which there will be many this season).
Third baseman Pablo Sandoval had a bounce back year in 2011, hitting .315 and slugging .552 after a disappointing .258/.409 line in 2010. “Kung Fu Panda” will need to repeat this performance in conjunction with Buster Posey’s return to health from last year’s gruesome ankle injury to ensure the Giants aren’t always counting on winning 2-1 games. San Francisco is counting on Posey and Sandoval to keep the lineup decent, but young slugger Brandon Belt could really solidify the offense. Though Belt needs to cut down on strikeouts (57 in 187 at bats in 2011) and get the opportunity to start every day without fearing a demotion, he could be a game-changer for the Giants because of his power potential.
Why they can win the West: Starting pitching, obviously. The Giants will rely on two-time Cy Young-award-winner Lincecum, $100-million-man Cain and Bumgarner to carry the load in 2012. Bumgarner, who’s only 22, will be the key to the rotation because his statistics (191 strikeouts and only 46 walks in 200+ innings in 2011) point to a big leap for him this season.
In addition to the Giants rotation, Posey’s health is a huge reason the Giants can recapture the West title. Posey’s return means more than just getting a strong bat back in the Giants lineup because, according to Giants pitchers, he calls a great game and serves as a leader for San Francisco. But having his bat helps too, as evidenced by the .862 OPS he posted in 2010 for the West-winning Giants.
Why they may falter: Firepower, or lack thereof. This team has had difficulty scoring runs since Barry Bonds retired, and even in the 2010 World Series, struggled to get runs across the board until the postseason. After you get past Sandoval, Posey and Belt, there really isn’t anyone in the lineup who strikes fear into opposing pitchers. Melky Cabrera (acquired in the offseason for starter Jonathan Sanchez) had a career year (201 hits, 18 home runs and 87 RBI) with the Royals in 2011, but it’s hard to tell if he will be able to put up similar production at PNC Park. And after a comeback year in 2010, Aubrey Huff continued his career decline by slumping to a .676 OPS. Yes, his combined on base percentage and slugging and couldn’t crack the .700 barrier. If Posey and Sandoval don’t hit, the Giants are in trouble because outfielders/utilitymen Brandon Crawford and Angel Pagan won’t be providing much pop.
Another concern is Brian Wilson, who after a dream 2010 season, had control issues last year and his season-ending elbow injury in 2011 should be worrisome for the Giants. He was able to pitch effectively through pain last season, with 36 saves. But a 1.47 WHIP is a huge warning sign that his mechanics weren’t right. Wilson wasn’t nearly the same closer who struck out 93 in 74 innings with a 1.81 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 2010.
Bold prediction: Bumgarner was a popular pick in fantasy baseball this year with good reason, and will finish in the top three in Cy Young votes in 2012. He may be only 22, the No. 3 starter on his own staff and went 13-13 last season, however, Bumgarner’s stuff (8.4 strikeouts per nine innings) is filthy and he’s ready to jump into the pitching elite this year.
Team: Los Angeles Dodgers
Projected finish: Third
Season outlook: It’s not often that you have previous year’s MVP runner-up (Matt Kemp) and Cy Young winner (Clayton Kershaw) and are picked to finish third in your division. But the ugly Frank McCourt situation has prevented the Dodgers from adding payroll and they’ve had to live with their mistakes, such as thinking James Loney is an everyday first baseman.
The Dodgers brought up sparkplug shortstop Dee Gordon for 2012, and he should provide much-needed energy for the Los Angeles. But the big problem for the Dodgers will be that behind Kershaw and Chad Billingsley, the rotation has a bunch of question marks.
Why they can win the West: Los Angeles will once again be reliant on Kemp (39 home runs, 126 RBI and 40 steals in 2011) and Kershaw (21-5, 248 strikeouts and 0.98 WHIP), but it’s hard to imagine either of them posting better statistics in 2012. To win the West, the Dodgers will need better seasons of out Billingsley (1.48 WHIP and 4.21 ERA) and Andre Ethier, whose .789 OPS isn’t good enough for a right fielder in a lineup that needs more production.
Since there isn’t much power on the team beyond Kemp, the Dodgers will rely on Gordon to set the table for the MVP hopeful and wreak havoc on the base paths by stealing 40+ bases. That’s asking a lot of a 23-year-old player, but if he can produce, the Dodgers will be a much more interesting team.
Why they may falter: Lack of offense behind Kemp is definitely an issue. Players such as Juan Uribe and Juan Rivera have seen better days at the plate, which is unfortunate for LA because it needs them to drive in runs this season. But the biggest issue will be with pitching. There are so many questions about the Dodgers. Can Billingsley bounce back? Who will produce among Aaron Harang, Chris Capuano and Ted Lilly? All were solid starting pitchers at one point in their careers, but how effective they can be in 2012 remains to be seen.
Another question mark is at the closer’s spot. Can Javy Guerra save games consistently over the course of a full season? There are too many unknowns to place the Dodgers higher than third in the West.
Bold prediction: Kemp won’t drop off to 2010 levels, but don’t expect another MVP-like season in 2012. He received his $160 million contract in the offseason and hasn’t proven he has the fire to be great year in and year out yet. He has the potential to have another Triple Crown-type season, but based on his past behavior, I say he’ll be back in the 20 home run, 90 RBI range.
Team: Colorado Rockies
Projected finish: Fourth
Season outlook: The Rockies will lean heavily on all-world shortstop Troy Tulowitzki and outfielder Carlos Gonzalez to make up for their lack of starting pitching in 2012. Both are legitimate MVP candidates and will need to perform at that level to give Colorado a shot at the West. Trading ace Ubaldo Jimenez last season left the Rockies with Jhoulys Chacin as their ace in a rotation that features 49-year-old Jamie Moyer. Things can change during the course of the season, but the outlook in 2012 isn’t all that promising for Colorado.
Why they can win the West: A lot would have to go right for the Rockies. Both the Diamondbacks and Giants would need to struggle and Colorado’s lineup would have to score a lot of runs to make up for its pitching staff. Drew Pomeranz, acquired in the Jimenez deal, could step up and be an impact pitcher behind Chacin and Jeremy Guthrie (acquired from Baltimore in the offseason); but this isn’t likely and the Rockies offense will have to cover the team’s flaws.
Tulowitzki and Gonzalez, who had a Triple Crown-type season in 2010, will certainly mash. But if offseason import Michael Cuddyer (signed as a free agent from Minnesota) pans out and outfielder Dexter Fowler matures, this lineup becomes interesting. Cuddyer could hit 30 home runs and drive in 100 runs, and Fowler has the ability to set the table for these sluggers while stealing 50 bases.
Why they may falter: Same old story for Colorado: Not enough pitching. They didn’t have enough to compete even before the Jimenez trade. Chacin had some solid numbers last year (3.62 ERA and 150 strikeouts in 194 innings), but he shouldn’t be a staff ace. Guthrie lost 17 games last year in Baltimore with a 4+ ERA, and it’s hard to imagine him improving upon those numbers in the mile high air. If this were the 2001 season and not 2012, Moyer would look like a solid pickup. However, Moyer is 49 and the No. 4 on Colorado’s staff. This doesn’t bode well for the Rockies.
There’s also the problem of hitting punch beyond Tulowitzki, Gonzalez and Cuddyer. First baseman Todd Helton is in the twilight of his career and anything more than 20 home runs would a bonus. Players such as shortstop Marco Scutaro (acquired from Boston) and Fowler are sure to help the team get runners on base, but this team needs more offensive depth.
Bold prediction: Rafael Betancourt will save more than 45 games for the Rockies this season. He’s been shaky as a middle relief man at times and is pitching in a hitter-friendly ballpark. But closers have had plenty of success in Colorado, and the Rockies aren’t going to blow too many teams out. This is just a hunch, but he’s my candidate for the “Randomly Awesome Closer” award for 2012. For context, last year’s winner was Joel Hanrahan.
Team: San Diego Padres
Projected finish: Fifth
Season outlook: Things look pretty bleak in terms of results for the Padres in 2012, as they’re in the process of rebuilding and developing young talent. San Diego made headlines this offseason by dealing ace Mat Latos to the Reds for enigmatic starter Edison Volquez and young slugging first baseman Yonder Alonso. While this will help the Padres long-term, it doesn’t do a whole lot this season, because Volquez is a wild card and Alonso is still maturing. Behind Volquez is a pair of solid starters in Clayton Richard and Corey Luebke.
Offensively, the Padres are led by 40-steal man Cameron Maybin and are awaiting the return of slugger Carlos Quentin (acquired from the White Sox in the offseason), who’s out with injury until early May.
Why they can win the West: Never say never (remember, this team was in the NL West race until the end in 2010 with 90 victories), but it would take a special alignment from the stars for San Diego to win the West title in 2012. This team can boast a bunch of speedsters, such as Maybin and outfielder Will Venable. But beyond Quentin, the Padres don’t have a 20 home run hitter in the lineup.
If Volquez can resurrect his career, and Richard and Luebke post sub-4 ERAs, San Diego won’t embarrass itself. This won’t be a lost season for the Padres, though, if they can bring along Alonso and starting pitcher Casey Kelly, who was acquired in the Adrian Gonzalez deal.
Why they may falter: The Padres have the makings of a 75-win team. As stated above, there isn’t much firepower in the San Diego batting order, and even with Quentin aboard, it’s hard to tell how his power will project in Petco Park. Furthermore, he hasn’t stayed healthy for a whole season and often has nagging injuries.
There also isn’t much pitching depth behind Volquez, Richard and Luebke, as Micah Owings and Anthony Bass aren’t exactly strong options. If any of the top three are injured, the Padres will be scrambling for arms.
Bold prediction: Despite having little to no protection around him, Quentin will be productive when healthy this season and hit more than 30 home runs for the second time in his career (2008, with 36).
Baseball Focus 