Do 2012 Angels see 2011 Red Sox in the mirror?

By Pat Ouellette, Baseball Focus Staff Writer

Step 1 – Dole out an amount of money on star free agents that would make Daniel Snyder blush.

Step 2 – Be anointed the top World Series contender in December and begin to feel the immense weight of these predictions.

Step 3 – Place awkward signage around your ballpark to remind your fans that you have, in fact, bought these players.

Step 4 – Fall over yourself out of the chute and have a worse record than sisters of the poor such as the Orioles and Mariners in April.

Do this process sound familiar, Red Sox fans?

It should. The 2012 Angels, off to a 6-10 start, are worthy successors thus far to the 2011 Red Sox, who began last season a meager 5-11 and…well…you know the rest.

Just as when Boston brought in Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez last offseason, the Angels inking Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson was immediately viewed as a landscape-changing event. It’s obviously too early to make any sort of valid comparison to last year’s Red Sox, but there are some early indications that the Angels may not be the sure-fire World Series participants many thought they were in September.

Boston was able to pick itself up off the mat last season, playing well from late May to late August. Then the collapse happened in September and the team finished a paltry 7-20. There were many layers (starting with a fractured clubhouse and general dissention) to what transpired and we won’t delve into them now.

There were, however, warning signs throughout the season that the Sox weren’t as balanced as we thought. One part of the collapse was they didn’t end up have as much pitching depth as they thought after Clay Buchholz and Daisuke Matsuzaka went down with injuries. Because the team was clicking so well during the summer, many didn’t see the September implosion coming.

No, Pujols hasn’t started hitting yet (no home runs and .654 OPS). But he will go on one of his patented runs soon and remind us why he’s the best player in baseball. Instead, the Angels should be worrying about the team around Pujols:

What if the rest of the lineup doesn’t hit?

If dirty secret of the 2011 Red Sox was lack of starting pitching, pay attention to the Angels offense in 2012 because it could be a similar fatal flaw. How consistently will the Angels be able to score runs if Pujols is slumping? While he’s struggling at the moment, they’re scoring just more than four runs per game. If your goal is to beat the Texas Rangers, that type of run production won’t cut it.

Kendrys Morales is one of baseball’s best stories early on as he’s still working his way back to form from a gruesome leg injury suffered in 2010. His numbers don’t appear to be that bad on the surface (.294 with a home run and 5 RBI). But for someone who’s having trouble with leg strength, his .412 slugging percentage in 50 at bats is a tad worrisome. Morales has proven he can still hit and more than likely will start to drive the ball again. How quickly that happens, however, is cause for concern for Mike Scioscia and Angels management.

Another problem for Los Angeles right now is that Mark Trumbo is in the process of learning third base and is struggling to make the conversion from first base. Scioscia is still putting Albert Callaspo in from time to time because the Angels need his defense. Trumbo needs to figure it out soon because the Angels need his 29-home run bat in the lineup.

After Morales, Pujols and Trumbo, the Angels lineup is pretty thin. Vernon Wells and Torii Hunter shouldn’t be counted on for major production anymore and Howie Kendrick is a solid performer, but by no means a game-changer.

If nothing else, this slow start offensively is just feeding into the argument that top prospect Mike Trout should already be in the Angels outfield.

Rotation issues 

The Angels top three in their rotation – Jered Weaver, Dan Haren and Wilson – are humming along as expected. The trio is among the reasons the Angels even have their lowly six wins. It’s the back end of the rotation, expected to help set the Angels apart from the rest of the AL, that’s been surprisingly poor in 2012. Ervin Santana and Jerome Williams have struggled and it’s not a given they’ll revert to last year’s form.

Conventional wisdom would tell you Santana is too talented to keep pitching the way he has and this is nothing more than a cold spell. With an 0-3 record, 6.75 ERA and six home runs given up in 18 innings pitched, that seems logical because he’s had a solid track record over the past two years. However, remember that he did post a disappointing 5.03 ERA and 1.47 WHIP as recently as 2009 and was even worse in 2007. Because Santana has such an inconsistent track record, he needs to be watched closer than someone like Dan Haren, who’s off to a bit of a slow start himself. You may want to think twice before giving him the benefit of the doubt as a stable No. 4 starter in the Angels rotation.

Williams wasn’t expected to receive Cy Young votes this year, but was thought of as a more-than-capable fifth starter for Los Angeles after going 4-0 with a 3.68 ERA in 44 innings in 2011. Again, it’s early, but his 7.71 ERA and career-high of only 131 innings while in the NL shows that he may not be in the rotation for the long haul. A few more poor starts will have Mike Scioscia eying top prospect Garrett Richards, who’s waiting in the wings for the No. 5 spot.

The Angels are unlikely to go through the same disappointing end to the season that the 2011 Red Sox put their fans through. But their slow start is worth keeping tabs on because there are some signals that the Angels may not quite be the world-beaters that everyone expected them to be.

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