By Max Leonard, Baseball Focus Staff Writer

Team: Detroit Tigers
Projected finish: First

Season outlook: When the Tigers went out and gave Prince Fielder a contract befitting of his name, they did so with realistic World Series aspirations. Fielder and Miguel Cabrera form arguably the most intimidating offensive pairing in the league as part of what was already one of baseball’s top offenses.

Armed with no less than seven legitimate 20 home run threats and coming off a season where they hit .277 as a team, the Tigers are going to score runs, and plenty of them. Pitching, however, may ultimately determine how deep into fall the Tigers play.

Anchored by one of baseball’s elite in Cy Young winner and MVP Justin Verlander, the rest of the staff is rich on skill, but not without questions. Doug Fister, one of last year’s more underrated deadline deals, has been slotted as the No. 2 man. Despite a thoroughly basic repertoire, Fister has a knack for getting outs. Upon arriving in Detroit, Fister posted an 8-1 record with a dominating 1.79 ERA. While such numbers are unsustainable, he is now backed with a potent offense for the first time in his career. With solid run support, there is no reason to believe Fister can’t produce behind Verlander. The enigmatic Max Scherzer rounds out a potentially dangerous Tigers trio. Scherzer has danced with ace potential throughout his career, but hasn’t been able to put it together on a consistent basis, struggling mightily on the road and with command.

Considering the AL Central is weak, Detroit should run away with the division title and will be looking to improve upon last year’s 95-win season. Anything less will be a massive disappointment.

Why they will win the Central: Who will challenge them? It’s not unreasonable to think that by year’s end, Detroit may boast the AL MVP and Cy Young award winner. It’s hard to remember a bigger divisional favorite in recent memory.

Why they may falter: Defense. The Tiger’s defense is bad, and history may remember them as being among the worst. In their effort to create an imposing lineup, Detroit is essentially fielding a team of designated hitters. Seven of eight starting fielders have a negative Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) and Delmon Young and Cabrera may be the poorest defenders at their respective positions. While many may look at their defense as a minor flaw, Detroit fans recall vividly how shoddy defensive play – a World Series-record eight errors – helped cost them world championship in 2006.  With no guaranteed outs on balls in play, look for pitch-to-contact hurlers such as Fister and Porcello to be stung the most by sloppy fielding.

Bold prediction: Young will have the best year of his career. In 202 at bats with Detroit last season (playoffs included), Young slugged 13 home runs, knocked in 38 and picked up right were he left off during this year’s spring training. Adding Fielder to the mix will only help Young’s production. Don’t be surprised if Young puts up a .280/.330 OBP/.500 SLG line on the season.

Team: Kansas City Royals
Projected finish: Second

Season outlook: One of the benefits of suffering what is seemingly an eternity of failure is being able to stockpile high draft picks. While one can hardly call it “suddenly”, the Royals have developed one of baseball’s most exciting young teams in the league and are poised to be a competitive group for years to come.

The lineup is no longer full of pushovers and now features some young run producers who will look to build on their 2011 seasons. Alex Gordon, Eric Hosmer and Billy Butler proved to be tough outs last year, showing pop and penchant for reaching base. Third baseman Mike Moustakas had a strong finish last season as well and is primed to join them in his first full season.

Ripe with potential, the lineup may be forced to carry the team, as the Kansas City rotation is hardly awe-inspiring. The Royals did acquire hard-throwing Jonathan Sanchez from the Giants for Melky Cabrera, but it remains to be seen if he can have the same success in the AL. While opening day starter and journeyman Bruce Chen seems to have found a home in Kansas City (12 wins each of the past two years), he has never been anything more than a No. 3 pitcher. Former top pick Luke Hochevar is as erratic as they come (career 1.40 WHIP) and is essentially a .500 pitcher.

Thankfully for the Royals, the bullpen is a strength. While losing closer Joakim Soria certainly hurts, the bullpen has they have the depth to compensate. Newcomer and former Dodgers closer Jonathan Broxton looks to begin the year as closer. However, Greg Holland, fresh off a dominant year in middle relief, will be waiting in the wings should Broxton falter. Imperfect as they may be, the Royals are looking at their first winning season since 2003, and it should be the first of many more.

Why they will win the Central: In terms of raw talent, the Royals have as much potential as any team. It may require a perfect storm of their young phenoms developing quicker than expected to unseat the Tigers. But if pitchers such as Hochevar, Sanchez and Luis Mendoza can become consistent contributors, they will make a strong push.

Why they may falter: All this talk of youth and potential is fantastic for the future, but when it comes to winning in the present, there is something to be said about veteran leadership. This is not a team that has experienced winning at the major league level. They’ll go through their ups and downs this season because of bouts of inconsistency and lack of pitching depth. However, this season will be a huge stepping-stone toward building a legitimate program in Kansas City.

Bold prediction: For the first time in a decade, the Royals will have three starters with double-digit wins. Hochevar, Sanchez and Chen will all top 10 wins en route to a winning season.

Team: Chicago White Sox
Projected finish: Third

Season outlook: The 2011 season marked a major direction shift for the Chicago White Sox. Coming off a solid 88 win season, they spent big money on slugger Adam Dunn in hopes that his bat would help put them over the top and bring them an AL Central pennant. Things didn’t exactly go as planned as Dunn had a historically poor season (.159 batting average) and the White Sox finished below .500. As a result, upper management appears to have made a conscious decision to focus on youth. This offseason, Chicago lost top pitcher Mark Buehrle, closer Sergio Santos (30 saves in 2011) and starting outfielders Juan Pierre and Carlos Quentin – all the while bringing in virtually no one.

Despite this overturn, the White Sox may not be as bad off as they appear. Their rotation remains strong. Streaky starters Gavin Floyd, John Danks and Philip Humber are certainly capable of taking over games and converted reliever Chris Sale is one of the top young arms in the game. Jake Peavy’s Cy Young days ended in San Diego, but he can still dish out quality starts when healthy.

Should they be able to produce a lead, rookie Addison Reed and veteran Matt Thornton provide a lethal two inning closing tag team. Getting leads may be difficult to come by, but bounce back seasons for Alex Rios and Adam Dunn would do wonders for last year’s 18^th-ranked offense that is now without Pierre and Quentin. A playoff push isn’t going to happen in 2012, but an improvement over last year’s debacle may be in the cards.

Why they will win the Central: Pitching is what will keep the White Sox competitive this season. They may not have an ace, but they have three former 15-game winners, an elite young talent in Sale and a solid pitcher in Humber coming off his best season.

Why they may falter: Lack of firepower is the clear issue with the 2012 White Sox. Eventually the immortal Paul Konerko, who seems to improve with age, will show his human side and break down. If Dunn and Rios can’t return to form and if their young guys struggle to adapt to major league competition, they will have real problems scoring runs. As obvious as it is, if you don’t score, you don’t win.

Bold prediction: Chris Sale will emerge as the true ace of the staff. Even in the face of an inning count, Sale will win 13 games, strike out 120 while maintaining around a 3 ERA and giving Chicago fans something to cheer for.

Team: Cleveland Indians
Projected finish: Fourth

Season outlook: Last season, the Indians marched out a team of journeymen and found themselves engaged in a battle for the Central until deep into the season. They ultimately collapsed and finished their rollercoaster season on a losing note. Most worrisome for Cleveland is that underlying statistics suggest that the “true” Indians were not the driving underdogs they appeared to be, but instead struggling overachievers. The Indians put together a “house of cards” season in which they were only average in close games and were outscored by a large amount (760-704).

Cleveland will look forward to having a full season from second baseman Jason Kipnis, proud owner of a minor league career .863 OPS and .840 OPS in his brief Indians stint in 2011. The Tribe will also get Shin-Soo Choo back after he lost last season to injury and as another year in the majors for Carlos Santana, one of baseball’s most exciting young catchers. These young hitters should help improve what was a below-average offense last year, but they may not be able to count on undisputed team MVP Asdrubal Cabrera to repeat his power numbers this season.

Cabrera is due for a massive falloff after slugging 25 home runs last season, seven more than four-year career total heading into 2011. As detailed here in on FanGraphs, the vast majority of Cabrera’s home runs barely cleared the fence. Because it will be hard to reproduce that type of power, he may be due for a great deal more doubles and warning track outs to go along with a significant dip in homers.

On the pitching front, Justin Masterson emerged as a true top of the rotation starter and looks to only improve upon his breakout season. Ubaldo Jimenez, last season’s big trade deadline trophy, still has a lot to prove to Cleveland. Jimenez’ first 11 starts left much to be desired. In Jimenez, the Indians paid dearly with top prospect Drew Pomeranz for an ace. But outside of his tremendous 2010 campaign, Jimenez has historically been more of a No. 2 or 3 pitcher in the lighter-hitting NL. Particularly with his walk rate, it will be difficult for him to approach the expectations set.

Why they will win the Central: If the Indians were to win the Central, it would be pitching that drives them. Their bullpen is clearly their greatest asset. Last year their top-five relievers combined for a 2.72 ERA and 1.14 WHIP over 314 innings. That kind of back-end depth and reliability is something few teams are fortunate enough to have. However, a bullpen only preserves games – they don’t win them.

To win the Central they would need significant contributions from their starters. Another step forward for youngsters Masterson and Josh Tomlin, a return to ace form for Jimenez and a solid year from veteran Derek Lowe would take the Indians and make them immediate contenders. While that is certainly a lot of “ifs”, all are feasible expectations.

Why they may falter: They simply aren’t all that talented and haven’t regrouped from losing CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee and injuries to Travis Hafner and Grady Sizemore. Cabrera is due for a fall and a team can only rely on journeymen like Casey Kotchman, Jack Hannahan and Shelley Duncan for so long. Last year’s aforementioned stats suggest that even their 80-82 record was fairly lucky. They somehow figured out how to win despite lesser talent, but can they expect that same magic to carry over into 2012?

Bold prediction: Michael Brantley may not have lit the world on fire (or even exceeded mediocrity) during his first full year in 2011, but it is far too early to dismiss him. At only 24 years old and going into his sophomore campaign, expect his numbers to start resembling more his minor league lines than his major league ones.

Fast and blessed with an incredible eye for the ball (1.3 walks/K ratio throughout the minors), Brantley has all the tools to be a successful leadoff hitter. Look for him to achieve solid numbers in steals, runs and OBP. Don’t be shocked to see Brantley swipe 25 bases to a .360 OBP in what will be his coming out year.

Team: Minnesota Twins
Projected finish: Fifth

Season outlook: The offseason was not kind to the Twins. Minnesota wasn’t exactly know for sending out a murders row to bat, but within the past year the Twins lost four of their best six hitters in Michael Cuddyer, Jim Thome, Jason Kubel and Delmon Young. The Twins are hoping to replace their production with journeyman slugger Josh Willingham, light hitting shortstop Jamey Carroll and a slew of in-house replacements with mediocre minor league track records.

The pitching staff also took a hit when top starter, Scott Baker was lost for the season due to elbow surgery and franchise closer Joe Nathan left for Texas. In both cases, no replacements were brought in. This would be less alarming if not for the all-around atrocious showing the Twins pitching staff put up last year. They finished second-to-last in ERA in 2011 and had only three pitchers on their entire staff finish the season with a sub-4 ERA, the only starter being the injured Baker. It is hard to envision an improvement when the entire staff remains unchanged except for two of the top performers.

This is not all to say that the Twins are hopeless. Franchise hitter Joe Mauer is back in good health (for now), as presumably is Justin Morneau, who has been dealing with concussion issues for the better part of two years. Matt Capps is an established closer and should be able to competently step in for Nathan. And Minnesota still has Francisco Liriano, who has yet to fulfill his ace potential but can be great in spurts. Carl Pavano will also provide a steady, if unspectacular, presence at the top of the rotation and Glen Perkins will be back to provide some stability to an otherwise shaky bullpen. However, personnel losses for the Twins may prove too much and they may find it an uphill battle to avoid the dreaded 100-loss season they dodged by a mere game just a season ago.

Why they will win the Central: No team led by manager Ron Gardenhire can ever be counted out. Seemingly every few years, against all logic, Gardenhire leads a team of utility infielders and fourth outfielders to the playoffs. They won’t win by having more talent than the competition, because, simply put, they don’t. If they reach the .500 mark, it will be because they will execute fundamentals and play with more fire than the competition.

Why they may falter: Injuries have ravaged the Twins in recent years. Their two best hitters in Mauer and Morneau are as injury prone as they come. Since becoming a regular starter, Mauer has missed an average of 37 games a year, a stat that rarely improves as a career goes on. Morneau, once one of the game’s most dangerous hitters, never recovered from a 2010 concussion. Since then it has been a litany of minor injuries forcing him to miss 174 games and when he has been healthy he has struggled to produce. Without Mauer and Morneau’s bats, the Twins lineup is as anemic as they come.

Bold prediction: One of the great underrated signings of the offseason was Willingham. While a liability in the field, Willingham has quietly done nothing but produce at the plate for his entire career (.839 career OPS). Now, one of the Twins’ clear cut best sluggers, you can bet that he will be receiving plenty of at bats in the heart of the order. In 2012, Willingham will reach a career-high 35 home runs and provides some desperately needed pop to an otherwise meek order.