Tagged: MLB
MLB Division Previews: Cardinals will survive post-Pujols era
By Roei Biberstain, Baseball Focus Staff Writer
Team: St. Louis Cardinals
Projected finish: First
Season outlook: For the first time in what seems like forever, the Cards will open up a baseball season in unfamiliar waters. No, not because they open the 2012 season as defending champs, a tune Cards fans are well versed in. This isn’t due to the fact that for the first time in 16 years they will be managed by someone other than the retired Tony LaRussa. However, it’s baseball’s unquestionable top player – Albert Pujols – no longer suiting up in the home whites that has the Cardinals in uncharted territory.
Losing Pujols was a huge loss. St. Louis’s biggest nightmareis now a reality and the former king of the Midwest is an Angel. This offseason, the Cards scrambled trying to fill the whole by signing the likes of Carlos Beltran and other small platoon pieces. But all will struggle to come to within even a fraction of Pujols’ historically-consistent production.
Why they will win the Central: Simply put, they’re the Cardinals. Few teams in baseball, let alone sports, churn out the type of factory-like production and success year in and year out that St. Louis does. The team didn’t blink upon hearing the news that Adam Wainwright would miss the 2011 season and went on to not only catch the Braves in September, but win a dramatic World Series. The Cardinals have proven that they can handle October baseball.
A bright spot is Wainwright’s return to a deep rotation featuring Kyle Lohse, Jamie Garcia, Jake Westbrook and soon-to-be-activated Chris Carpenter. Carpenter and Wainwright form a solid duo and all three behind them are capable starters. Behind the back stop, Yadier Molina – fresh off a new contract – is quickly becoming one of baseball’s best offensive and defensive catchers.Jason Motte anchors a solid bullpen as the division’s best closer.
Why they may falter: Health, specifically in the pitching department. One former Cy Young award winner and one runner up in Carpenter and Wainright, respectively, could really bolster the front end of the staff, but are huge question marks. Carpenter, who turns 37 in April, has been plagued by injury the better part of his career and is not getting any younger. Wainright, enters the spring having not thrown a pitch in 17 months.In addition, a lineup losingPujols will always suffer. Matt Holiday becomes the focal point, but will miss Pujols’ protection and will see less fastballs. And at 36 years old, Lance Berkmanis sure to show signs of slowing down sooner rather than later.
Player who could surprise: Third baseman David Freese became somewhat of a household name in last year’s playoffs and World Series with dramatic hit after dramatic hit to cap off one of the most exciting Octobers in baseball history. While he has battled injuries (Freese’s career high in at bats is only 333), he has a career .800 OPS. Now that he’s healthy and projected as a middle-of-the-order bat, Freeseshould have no problem approaching a .300 batting average and 25 home runs.
Team: Milwaukee Brewers
Projected finish: Second
Season outlook: Milwaukee is another NL Central team coming off a tumultuous off season similar to that of the Cardinals. In addition to the loss of Prince Fielder to the Tigers, reigning MVP Ryan Braun had his share of turmoil. His award-winning 2011 campaign helped the Brewers to their most successful season in 20 years. But those heroics were quickly forgotten after Braun failed a PED test, which led to a 50 game suspension that was eventually overturned after he appealed. Braun will spend 2012 trying to rebuild his once-impeccable reputation.
After signing former Cub Aramis Ramirez to replace the void left by Fielder, and defensive shortstop whiz Alex Gonzalez to aid a deep starting oration, the Brewers aren’t in bad shape for the 2012 season.
Why they will win: Perhaps this notion is getting a bit stale right now with our previews. But honestly – pitching, pitching and more pitching. The Brewers boast one of the league’s best rotations this side of Philadelphia and are anchored by flamethrower Yovanii Gallardo.
Gallardo is one of baseball’s few pitchers who consistently reach the double-digit strikeout totals per outing. In addition, the likes of Zach Greinke, Shaun Marcum and Randy Wolf give the Brewers the depth that few staffs in baseball can match on a consistent basis. The ability to reach the sixth or seventh inning consistently is a major luxury for the Brewers. The tandem of closer John Axford and former Met closer and current setup manFranciso Rodriguez make for a dominant duo for Milwaukee at the end of games. And even without Fielder, the Brewers’ offense still has Braun, Ramirez, Rickie Weeks and Corey Hart. There’s no reason why the Brewers can’t give the Cardinals a run in the Central.
Why they will falter: The drama and circus-like atmosphere that will follow Ryan Braun on the road is no small matter. The left fielder will deal with such scrutiny that the mild-mannered, youngster has never seen before. With the loss of Prince Fielder, the Brewers can ill-afford to see lost production from Braun as well.
Another question mark, as is seemingly the case yearly, is starter Zach Greinke, who has talent that few in baseball can match. Emotionalmaturity and bouts with depression have plagued the righty throughout his entire career and have prevented from posting back-to-back quality seasons since 2008-2009. Greinke becomes a free agent a mere five days after the 2012 season ends so the onus will be on him to prove he’s worth ace money and can perform at a high level on a consistent basis.
Bold prediction: Closer John Axford has quietly turned into a dependable bullpen arm. With the deadline acquisition of Francisco Rodriguez last season, Axford’s days as the team’s closer seemed to be numbered. But Rodriguez surprisingly accepted the role of set up man prior to being traded leaving the door open for Axford to resume his duties finishing the year with a franchise-record 45 saves. Axford comes into the year with sole closer duties and will contend for a National League all-star berth while keeping the Brew Crew in contention deep into the fall.
Team: Cincinnati Reds
Projected finish: Third
Season Outlook: Though Cincinnati is one of baseball’s besttowns, the Reds are an afterthought around baseballafter a disappointing 79-83 season in 2011 and quiet offseason. Yes, the Reds have a star-studded lineup that includes Jay Bruce, Brandon Phillips, and Joey Votto, all of whom are under contract for the near future.
They also have a rotation led by flamboyant Dominican Johnny Cueto and newly-acquired Mat Latos, one of baseball’s most exciting arms in Aroldis Chapman andexuberant-yet-experienced manager Dusty Baker. But the Reds just can’t seem to produce the ‘it’ factor and remain a talented team that can’t seem get over the proverbial hump.
Votto recently signed one of baseball’s richest contracts and has a lot to live up to. It remains to be seen how the 2010 National League MVP deals with his new fortune. His 40+ home run potential coupled with a career .312 average makeVotto a certifiable Triple Crown candidate. Former World Series winner Scott Rolen continues to man the hot corner, but turned 37 a few weeks ago and has chronic knee problems. Bruce and center fielder Drew Stubbs both lack range and could pose defensive issues in a ball park that is conducive to fly balls.
Why they will win the Central: Power. Now that Pujols and Fielder have departed the Central, the Reds finally can call themselves the premier offensive team in the Central, if not the Nationals League. Few teams if any have a middle of the order with the potential and power that the Reds. The old adage says pitching wins and offense sells tickets. Well the Reds won’t sell many tickets, but perhaps they can contend in a division that’s experienced turnover with an offense that may lead the NL in runs scored.
Why they may falter: Consistency and pitching depth. After winningtheir first division title in 15 years in 2010, the Reds took a step back in 2011 with only 79 wins because of a shallow pitching staff.
A sticking point will be the Reds ability to be competitive against the better teams in the league. In 2011 the Reds were just .500 against St. Louis, Milwaukee and Philadelphia combined while also struggling a bit against the league’s weaker opponents.
Another problem: After Cueto and Latos, who will step up in the Cincinnati rotation? Bronson Arroyo was abysmal last year and neither Mike Leake nor Homer Bailey has proved they can be consistent starters over the course of a full season.
Bold prediction: Joey Votto is ready to ascend to baseball’s elite. Fresh off a contract extension that puts him in the company of other superstars such as Albert Pujols, and Alex Rodriguez, it is time for Votto to match the production of his monetary counterparts. Votto will hit 50 home runs this season while batting .320 and win get the nod for his second NL MVP in 2012.
Team: Pittsburgh Pirates
Projected finish: Fourth
Season outlook: It’s been 20 years and counting now that the Bucs last had a winning team, but signs point to the streak perhaps coming to an end in 2012. Last season was a big step forward for the Pirates, a once-proud franchise who have been relegated to baseball anonymity for far too long. Manager Clint Hurdle, who brought his fiery acumen and winning experience to the Pirates, is back at the helm for his second season providing some much needed stability.
On July 8 2011, the Pirates beat Cubs to enter the All-Star break above the .500 mark for the first time since 1992. The Pirates also sent three players to the 2011 All Star game in starting pitcher Kevin Correia, closer Joel Hanrahan and center fielder Andrew McCutchen. This marked the first time since 1990 that Pittsburgh had three All-Stars on the National League team. But the Bucs won just one game in nearly a three weeks stretch that leveled things off for a team still a few years away. An offseason trade that brought A.J. Burnett to Pittsburgh provided some much-needed veteran starting pitching experience and buzz to a baseball city desperate for it.
Why they will win the Central: They’re due, aren’t they? Many careers have come and gone since 1992 and you have to assume the Pirates will get it right one of these years.
They’re also in good hands with manager Clint Hurdle, who provides something the Pirates haven’t had in years: Stability. Hurdle is no stranger to turning young teams in auspicious baseball markets into instant contenders. He led a young 2007 Rockies squad to the NL pennant and served as the Rangers hitting coach in 2010 as part of their first of two AL pennants. The Pirates may truly be a few years away, but Hurdle is the man to get the most out of a young squad still seeking an identity.
Why they may falter: Simply put, Pittsburgh doesn’t have a true superstar that it can build around. Instead they have a collection of good players. The Pirates have steadily been drafting at the top of the draft, but a revolving door in the front office just has not produced enough skill players to truly contend. Though McCutchen is baseball’s best player you’ve never heard of, he remains the lone focal point of a lineup with little else to offer. McCutchen is more of an all-around player who could go 25-25 this year, but isn’t a game-changer yet.
There are also rotation problems for the Pirates. Burnett is just about to return from injury and behind him is Erik Bedard, a crafty lefty with chronic health issues. Bedard is a middle-of-the-rotation starter at best and will have to stay healthy for a thin pitching staff still in the works. After them, James McDonald, Kevin Correia and Charlie Morton don’t exactly strike fear into the opposition.
Bold prediction: Hanrahan is a top-notch closer in the making. But, as is the case with all struggling squads, will he get the workload necessary to truly be an impact arm? After his first career All-Star selection in 2011, Hanrahan finished out the season with a career-high 40 saves while posting a minuscule 1.83 ERA in 70 appearances. Perhaps the brightest note of all was his ability to keep the ball in the yard. Hanrahan surrendered just one home run to opponents during his entire 2011 campaign.
Team: Chicago Cubs
Projected finish: Fifth
Season outlook: Baseball’s lovable losers actually caught some very positive breaks during this past off-season. Unfortunately for the Wrigley faithful in the short-term, none of these breaks had anything to do with those who play on the diamond. After a house cleaning from top to bottom in the front office, baseball wonder child Theo Epstein was poached from the Red Sox and hired as team president. Theo has complete control of all player personnel matters and is no stranger to defeating the stigma of futility (read: Red Sox from 1918-2003).
Taking over the Cubs is no small task. Epstein will focus on drafting and scouting and should produce positive results, though they won’t happen over night. In Boston, the 2004 championship team that Epstein presided over was much of Dan Duquette’s work with only a few minor tweaks needed. However, Epstein does deserve plenty of credit for the franchise’s second championship of the decade in 2007. The 2007 World Series team was made up of young, home grown players drafted by Epstein and his baseball operations squad. He will need to work his magic once again with the Cubs’ farm system.
In addition, the defection of mashers Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder from the division was a huge break for the Cubs, who couldn’t match the offensive output of both counterparts.
Why they will win the Central: This current Cubs squad couldn’t be any further away from the one that perhaps will eventually bring the franchise deep into October. Devoid of talent, skill and depth, the Cubs have perhaps only one player who will wear the uniform for the long haul. Starlin Castro, a sweet-swinging shortstop is the lone ray of sunshine that Cubs fans can be excited about. Castro racked up more than 200 hits in 2011 and is a star in the making.
Otherwise, it is a game of waiting and hoping for Cubs fans, which the faithful are all too familiar with. An infusion of home-grown talent and coupled with careful free agency spending is the goal. but remains a few years away.
Why they may falter: The Cubs just don’t have enough talent to compete in a division loaded with pitching depth and young up and comers. Not yet anyway. It will be a long summer on the North Side with thoughts toward the future. Epstein has shown strength in revamping a franchise and doing so in a timely manner, but will have to be a lot more frugal when it comes to shelling out free agency money. One important note: Because MLB teams will have a salary cap on draft picks and there will be no more “Type B” free agents, Epstein won’t have the luxury of hoarding draft picks that he did in Boston.
Bold prediction: One of Epstein’s first orders of business was to bring over Anthony Rizzo from the Padres. Rizzo was a sixth round draft choice by the Red Sox. After being a prized prospect in the Red Sox organization, he was shipped to San Diego in a trade that brought Adrian Gonzalez to Boston. In 2010, he hit a combined .260 with an on-base percentage of .334 with 42 doubles, 25 home runs and 100 RBIs between stops at High-A Salem and Double-A Portland. He credited the easing of his swing and making better use of his legs for his power surge. He may not reach Chicago until mid-season with Bryan LaHair ahead of him, but Rizzo will make an impact on the Cubs in 2012.
Team: Houston Astros
Projected finish: Sixth
Season outlook: In case you’re wondering, it’s been seven years since the Astros made their lone World Series appearance and the team is closer to losing to a Triple-A squad than making a trip to the playoffs. The only holdover from 2005 team is Wandy Rodriguez, the Astros ace whom they’re desperately trying to deal away. Yes, Houston is in full rebuilding mode. With a starting lineup littered with names such as Jose Altuve or Brian Bogusevic, things are going to get a lot worse before they get better for Brad Mills’ crew.
Why they will win the Central: There are five NL Central teams that all have more talent than the Astros. Only an act of God will get this team anywhere close to contention, let alone a division title. The bright spot on this team could be the tandem of Rodriguez and youngster Bud Norris, who had a 3.77 ERA while striking out 8.5 per 9 last season. This could have been a solid trio with Brett Myers as the third starter. Myers was great in 2010, but struggled in 2011 so the Astros decided to make him the team’s closer during the offseason. Houston would be smart to re-insert him back into the rotation to give team a shot to stay in games because, frankly, J.A. Happ and Lucas Harrell aren’t going to get past 6 innings a piece very often.
Why they may falter: The Astros will have major issues offensively after scoring a measly 615 runs in 2011. They still have an aging Carlos Lee (because of his ridiculous $100 million contract) to drive in runs (94 in 2011), but the remainder of the lineup is pretty barren. You likely haven’t heard of catcher Jason Castro or shortstop Marwin Gonzalez, but both are starting players for the Astros. Houston can only hope outfielder J.D. Martinez, who’s off to a great start in 2012, and third baseman Chris Johnson develop into productive hitters this season and beyond.
Bold prediction: The Astros will challenge the 1962 Mets record for futility – 120 losses in one season. There is no depth on this team nor much hope on the horizon. Things will get even uglier once Houston finally parts ways with Rodriguez and/or finds a team to take on Lee’s salary. We may be watching the “race” to 120 come September like we did back in 2003 with the 119-loss Detroit Tigers.
MLB Division Previews: Tigers looking to run away with AL Central
By Max Leonard, Baseball Focus Staff Writer
Team: Detroit Tigers
Projected finish: First
Season outlook: When the Tigers went out and gave Prince Fielder a contract befitting of his name, they did so with realistic World Series aspirations. Fielder and Miguel Cabrera form arguably the most intimidating offensive pairing in the league as part of what was already one of baseball’s top offenses.
Armed with no less than seven legitimate 20 home run threats and coming off a season where they hit .277 as a team, the Tigers are going to score runs, and plenty of them. Pitching, however, may ultimately determine how deep into fall the Tigers play.
Anchored by one of baseball’s elite in Cy Young winner and MVP Justin Verlander, the rest of the staff is rich on skill, but not without questions. Doug Fister, one of last year’s more underrated deadline deals, has been slotted as the No. 2 man. Despite a thoroughly basic repertoire, Fister has a knack for getting outs. Upon arriving in Detroit, Fister posted an 8-1 record with a dominating 1.79 ERA. While such numbers are unsustainable, he is now backed with a potent offense for the first time in his career. With solid run support, there is no reason to believe Fister can’t produce behind Verlander. The enigmatic Max Scherzer rounds out a potentially dangerous Tigers trio. Scherzer has danced with ace potential throughout his career, but hasn’t been able to put it together on a consistent basis, struggling mightily on the road and with command.
Considering the AL Central is weak, Detroit should run away with the division title and will be looking to improve upon last year’s 95-win season. Anything less will be a massive disappointment.
Why they will win the Central: Who will challenge them? It’s not unreasonable to think that by year’s end, Detroit may boast the AL MVP and Cy Young award winner. It’s hard to remember a bigger divisional favorite in recent memory.
Why they may falter: Defense. The Tiger’s defense is bad, and history may remember them as being among the worst. In their effort to create an imposing lineup, Detroit is essentially fielding a team of designated hitters. Seven of eight starting fielders have a negative Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) and Delmon Young and Cabrera may be the poorest defenders at their respective positions. While many may look at their defense as a minor flaw, Detroit fans recall vividly how shoddy defensive play – a World Series-record eight errors – helped cost them world championship in 2006. With no guaranteed outs on balls in play, look for pitch-to-contact hurlers such as Fister and Porcello to be stung the most by sloppy fielding.
Bold prediction: Young will have the best year of his career. In 202 at bats with Detroit last season (playoffs included), Young slugged 13 home runs, knocked in 38 and picked up right were he left off during this year’s spring training. Adding Fielder to the mix will only help Young’s production. Don’t be surprised if Young puts up a .280/.330 OBP/.500 SLG line on the season.
Team: Kansas City Royals
Projected finish: Second
Season outlook: One of the benefits of suffering what is seemingly an eternity of failure is being able to stockpile high draft picks. While one can hardly call it “suddenly”, the Royals have developed one of baseball’s most exciting young teams in the league and are poised to be a competitive group for years to come.
The lineup is no longer full of pushovers and now features some young run producers who will look to build on their 2011 seasons. Alex Gordon, Eric Hosmer and Billy Butler proved to be tough outs last year, showing pop and penchant for reaching base. Third baseman Mike Moustakas had a strong finish last season as well and is primed to join them in his first full season.
Ripe with potential, the lineup may be forced to carry the team, as the Kansas City rotation is hardly awe-inspiring. The Royals did acquire hard-throwing Jonathan Sanchez from the Giants for Melky Cabrera, but it remains to be seen if he can have the same success in the AL. While opening day starter and journeyman Bruce Chen seems to have found a home in Kansas City (12 wins each of the past two years), he has never been anything more than a No. 3 pitcher. Former top pick Luke Hochevar is as erratic as they come (career 1.40 WHIP) and is essentially a .500 pitcher.
Thankfully for the Royals, the bullpen is a strength. While losing closer Joakim Soria certainly hurts, the bullpen has they have the depth to compensate. Newcomer and former Dodgers closer Jonathan Broxton looks to begin the year as closer. However, Greg Holland, fresh off a dominant year in middle relief, will be waiting in the wings should Broxton falter. Imperfect as they may be, the Royals are looking at their first winning season since 2003, and it should be the first of many more.
Why they will win the Central: In terms of raw talent, the Royals have as much potential as any team. It may require a perfect storm of their young phenoms developing quicker than expected to unseat the Tigers. But if pitchers such as Hochevar, Sanchez and Luis Mendoza can become consistent contributors, they will make a strong push.
Why they may falter: All this talk of youth and potential is fantastic for the future, but when it comes to winning in the present, there is something to be said about veteran leadership. This is not a team that has experienced winning at the major league level. They’ll go through their ups and downs this season because of bouts of inconsistency and lack of pitching depth. However, this season will be a huge stepping-stone toward building a legitimate program in Kansas City.
Bold prediction: For the first time in a decade, the Royals will have three starters with double-digit wins. Hochevar, Sanchez and Chen will all top 10 wins en route to a winning season.
Team: Chicago White Sox
Projected finish: Third
Season outlook: The 2011 season marked a major direction shift for the Chicago White Sox. Coming off a solid 88 win season, they spent big money on slugger Adam Dunn in hopes that his bat would help put them over the top and bring them an AL Central pennant. Things didn’t exactly go as planned as Dunn had a historically poor season (.159 batting average) and the White Sox finished below .500. As a result, upper management appears to have made a conscious decision to focus on youth. This offseason, Chicago lost top pitcher Mark Buehrle, closer Sergio Santos (30 saves in 2011) and starting outfielders Juan Pierre and Carlos Quentin – all the while bringing in virtually no one.
Despite this overturn, the White Sox may not be as bad off as they appear. Their rotation remains strong. Streaky starters Gavin Floyd, John Danks and Philip Humber are certainly capable of taking over games and converted reliever Chris Sale is one of the top young arms in the game. Jake Peavy’s Cy Young days ended in San Diego, but he can still dish out quality starts when healthy.
Should they be able to produce a lead, rookie Addison Reed and veteran Matt Thornton provide a lethal two inning closing tag team. Getting leads may be difficult to come by, but bounce back seasons for Alex Rios and Adam Dunn would do wonders for last year’s 18th-ranked offense that is now without Pierre and Quentin. A playoff push isn’t going to happen in 2012, but an improvement over last year’s debacle may be in the cards.
Why they will win the Central: Pitching is what will keep the White Sox competitive this season. They may not have an ace, but they have three former 15-game winners, an elite young talent in Sale and a solid pitcher in Humber coming off his best season.
Why they may falter: Lack of firepower is the clear issue with the 2012 White Sox. Eventually the immortal Paul Konerko, who seems to improve with age, will show his human side and break down. If Dunn and Rios can’t return to form and if their young guys struggle to adapt to major league competition, they will have real problems scoring runs. As obvious as it is, if you don’t score, you don’t win.
Bold prediction: Chris Sale will emerge as the true ace of the staff. Even in the face of an inning count, Sale will win 13 games, strike out 120 while maintaining around a 3 ERA and giving Chicago fans something to cheer for.
Team: Cleveland Indians
Projected finish: Fourth
Season outlook: Last season, the Indians marched out a team of journeymen and found themselves engaged in a battle for the Central until deep into the season. They ultimately collapsed and finished their rollercoaster season on a losing note. Most worrisome for Cleveland is that underlying statistics suggest that the “true” Indians were not the driving underdogs they appeared to be, but instead struggling overachievers. The Indians put together a “house of cards” season in which they were only average in close games and were outscored by a large amount (760-704).
Cleveland will look forward to having a full season from second baseman Jason Kipnis, proud owner of a minor league career .863 OPS and .840 OPS in his brief Indians stint in 2011. The Tribe will also get Shin-Soo Choo back after he lost last season to injury and as another year in the majors for Carlos Santana, one of baseball’s most exciting young catchers. These young hitters should help improve what was a below-average offense last year, but they may not be able to count on undisputed team MVP Asdrubal Cabrera to repeat his power numbers this season.
Cabrera is due for a massive falloff after slugging 25 home runs last season, seven more than four-year career total heading into 2011. As detailed here in on FanGraphs, the vast majority of Cabrera’s home runs barely cleared the fence. Because it will be hard to reproduce that type of power, he may be due for a great deal more doubles and warning track outs to go along with a significant dip in homers.
On the pitching front, Justin Masterson emerged as a true top of the rotation starter and looks to only improve upon his breakout season. Ubaldo Jimenez, last season’s big trade deadline trophy, still has a lot to prove to Cleveland. Jimenez’ first 11 starts left much to be desired. In Jimenez, the Indians paid dearly with top prospect Drew Pomeranz for an ace. But outside of his tremendous 2010 campaign, Jimenez has historically been more of a No. 2 or 3 pitcher in the lighter-hitting NL. Particularly with his walk rate, it will be difficult for him to approach the expectations set.
Why they will win the Central: If the Indians were to win the Central, it would be pitching that drives them. Their bullpen is clearly their greatest asset. Last year their top-five relievers combined for a 2.72 ERA and 1.14 WHIP over 314 innings. That kind of back-end depth and reliability is something few teams are fortunate enough to have. However, a bullpen only preserves games – they don’t win them.
To win the Central they would need significant contributions from their starters. Another step forward for youngsters Masterson and Josh Tomlin, a return to ace form for Jimenez and a solid year from veteran Derek Lowe would take the Indians and make them immediate contenders. While that is certainly a lot of “ifs”, all are feasible expectations.
Why they may falter: They simply aren’t all that talented and haven’t regrouped from losing CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee and injuries to Travis Hafner and Grady Sizemore. Cabrera is due for a fall and a team can only rely on journeymen like Casey Kotchman, Jack Hannahan and Shelley Duncan for so long. Last year’s aforementioned stats suggest that even their 80-82 record was fairly lucky. They somehow figured out how to win despite lesser talent, but can they expect that same magic to carry over into 2012?
Bold prediction: Michael Brantley may not have lit the world on fire (or even exceeded mediocrity) during his first full year in 2011, but it is far too early to dismiss him. At only 24 years old and going into his sophomore campaign, expect his numbers to start resembling more his minor league lines than his major league ones.
Fast and blessed with an incredible eye for the ball (1.3 walks/K ratio throughout the minors), Brantley has all the tools to be a successful leadoff hitter. Look for him to achieve solid numbers in steals, runs and OBP. Don’t be shocked to see Brantley swipe 25 bases to a .360 OBP in what will be his coming out year.
Team: Minnesota Twins
Projected finish: Fifth
Season outlook: The offseason was not kind to the Twins. Minnesota wasn’t exactly know for sending out a murders row to bat, but within the past year the Twins lost four of their best six hitters in Michael Cuddyer, Jim Thome, Jason Kubel and Delmon Young. The Twins are hoping to replace their production with journeyman slugger Josh Willingham, light hitting shortstop Jamey Carroll and a slew of in-house replacements with mediocre minor league track records.
The pitching staff also took a hit when top starter, Scott Baker was lost for the season due to elbow surgery and franchise closer Joe Nathan left for Texas. In both cases, no replacements were brought in. This would be less alarming if not for the all-around atrocious showing the Twins pitching staff put up last year. They finished second-to-last in ERA in 2011 and had only three pitchers on their entire staff finish the season with a sub-4 ERA, the only starter being the injured Baker. It is hard to envision an improvement when the entire staff remains unchanged except for two of the top performers.
This is not all to say that the Twins are hopeless. Franchise hitter Joe Mauer is back in good health (for now), as presumably is Justin Morneau, who has been dealing with concussion issues for the better part of two years. Matt Capps is an established closer and should be able to competently step in for Nathan. And Minnesota still has Francisco Liriano, who has yet to fulfill his ace potential but can be great in spurts. Carl Pavano will also provide a steady, if unspectacular, presence at the top of the rotation and Glen Perkins will be back to provide some stability to an otherwise shaky bullpen. However, personnel losses for the Twins may prove too much and they may find it an uphill battle to avoid the dreaded 100-loss season they dodged by a mere game just a season ago.
Why they will win the Central: No team led by manager Ron Gardenhire can ever be counted out. Seemingly every few years, against all logic, Gardenhire leads a team of utility infielders and fourth outfielders to the playoffs. They won’t win by having more talent than the competition, because, simply put, they don’t. If they reach the .500 mark, it will be because they will execute fundamentals and play with more fire than the competition.
Why they may falter: Injuries have ravaged the Twins in recent years. Their two best hitters in Mauer and Morneau are as injury prone as they come. Since becoming a regular starter, Mauer has missed an average of 37 games a year, a stat that rarely improves as a career goes on. Morneau, once one of the game’s most dangerous hitters, never recovered from a 2010 concussion. Since then it has been a litany of minor injuries forcing him to miss 174 games and when he has been healthy he has struggled to produce. Without Mauer and Morneau’s bats, the Twins lineup is as anemic as they come.
Bold prediction: One of the great underrated signings of the offseason was Willingham. While a liability in the field, Willingham has quietly done nothing but produce at the plate for his entire career (.839 career OPS). Now, one of the Twins’ clear cut best sluggers, you can bet that he will be receiving plenty of at bats in the heart of the order. In 2012, Willingham will reach a career-high 35 home runs and provides some desperately needed pop to an otherwise meek order.
MLB Division Previews: Young talent runs deep in NL West
By Pat Ouellette, Baseball Focus Staff Writer
Team: Arizona Diamondbacks
Projected finish: First
Season outlook: New baseball managers don’t very often affect their teams the way Kirk Gibson did with the Diamondbacks last season. After failing to reach 90 wins since 2007, Arizona was the darlings of the NL in 2011 with 94 victories and an NL West title. Gibson was able to harness the potential of this young, talented group and the Diamondbacks now carry high expectations heading into 2012.
Big things are expected from the Arizona squad because of its strong balance of pitching and offense. Keep an eye on 24-year-old Justin Upton, whose 31 home runs, .898 OPS and 21 steals last season were just a preview of things to come. The Diamondbacks also have a stud in 21-game winner Ian Kennedy (8 strikeouts per 9 innings).
The future certainly looks bright for Arizona and management is clearly going hard after a deep playoff run this year. This was evident when they dealt top starting pitching prospect Jarrod Parker to Oakland for veteran starter Trevor Cahill during the offseason.
Why they can win the West: As important as Upton and Kennedy are to Arizona, what sets this team apart from the rest of the division is the depth behind them. Upton is obviously a special talent with enormous expectations heading into 2012, but don’t sleep on the rest of this Diamondback lineup. There is a plethora of potential 20-home-run hitters in Arizona, including: Catcher Miguel Montero, first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, second baseman Aaron Hill, third baseman Ryan Roberts and outfielders Chris Young and Jason Kubel.
It’s also easy to focus on Kennedy because he’s the staff leader and among the best pitchers in baseball. However, the rotation behind him isn’t full of slouches. In fact, all four pitchers (Daniel Hudson, Cahill, Joe Saunders and Josh Collmenter) are capable of winning 15+ games with sub-4 ERAs. Add in a now-healthy JJ Putz (45 saves and 0.91 WHIP in 2011) and you start to understand why Arizona won 94 games last season and are again the favorites in 2012.
Why they may falter: For all of Arizona’s great slugging potential on offense, this is a group that strikes out extremely often. Every single one of the players listed above is a 100+ strikeout candidate. This is especially true of second-year player Goldschmidt (53 strikeouts in 156 at bats in 2011), who hasn’t proven he can make contact enough to take advantage of his prodigious power. It’s a concern because if the Diamondbacks are in a tight race with the Giants down the stretch, and end up facing Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner, Arizona can’t always rely on the three-run bomb to save them. The Diamondbacks are going to need to find a way to develop better plate habits, such as working the count, to not only win the division but make it past the first round of the playoffs.
Another concern is how Cahill will adjust to a hitter-friendly ballpark. He was great in 2010 for the A’s, winning 18 games and earning an All Star nod. But he had a rough 2011 with a 12-14 record, 1.43 WHIP and 4.16 ERA. Those numbers are bad on the surface, but even worse when you consider the advantage that the Oakland Coliseum gave Cahill. At home, he had a solid 3.20 ERA and allowed a .257 batting average; however, on the road, his ERA jumped to 5.23 and batters hit .281 off of him. Cahill doesn’t strike out that many batters out (6.37 per 9 last year) and he can’t rely on a huge park anymore, so keep in mind that he may not be the same pitcher in Arizona.
Bold prediction: Justin Upton will finally have his breakout season and contend for the NL MVP. He has the team around him to flourish, and if he can cut down on strikeouts, this could be a monster campaign for Upton. It’s not hyperbole to say he could go 40-40 and win a Gold Glove this year.
Team: San Francisco Giants
Projected finish: Second
Season outlook: Let’s face it. The NL West is still not aesthetically pleasing and will continue to be a grind-it-out division that will likely come down to a September race to the finish. Because of their top-flight starting pitching, the Giants will at the very least compete in the NL West. San Francisco’s triumvirate of Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner is as good as any in the majors, and can carry the Giants through offensive dry spells (of which there will be many this season).
Third baseman Pablo Sandoval had a bounce back year in 2011, hitting .315 and slugging .552 after a disappointing .258/.409 line in 2010. “Kung Fu Panda” will need to repeat this performance in conjunction with Buster Posey’s return to health from last year’s gruesome ankle injury to ensure the Giants aren’t always counting on winning 2-1 games. San Francisco is counting on Posey and Sandoval to keep the lineup decent, but young slugger Brandon Belt could really solidify the offense. Though Belt needs to cut down on strikeouts (57 in 187 at bats in 2011) and get the opportunity to start every day without fearing a demotion, he could be a game-changer for the Giants because of his power potential.
Why they can win the West: Starting pitching, obviously. The Giants will rely on two-time Cy Young-award-winner Lincecum, $100-million-man Cain and Bumgarner to carry the load in 2012. Bumgarner, who’s only 22, will be the key to the rotation because his statistics (191 strikeouts and only 46 walks in 200+ innings in 2011) point to a big leap for him this season.
In addition to the Giants rotation, Posey’s health is a huge reason the Giants can recapture the West title. Posey’s return means more than just getting a strong bat back in the Giants lineup because, according to Giants pitchers, he calls a great game and serves as a leader for San Francisco. But having his bat helps too, as evidenced by the .862 OPS he posted in 2010 for the West-winning Giants.
Why they may falter: Firepower, or lack thereof. This team has had difficulty scoring runs since Barry Bonds retired, and even in the 2010 World Series, struggled to get runs across the board until the postseason. After you get past Sandoval, Posey and Belt, there really isn’t anyone in the lineup who strikes fear into opposing pitchers. Melky Cabrera (acquired in the offseason for starter Jonathan Sanchez) had a career year (201 hits, 18 home runs and 87 RBI) with the Royals in 2011, but it’s hard to tell if he will be able to put up similar production at PNC Park. And after a comeback year in 2010, Aubrey Huff continued his career decline by slumping to a .676 OPS. Yes, his combined on base percentage and slugging and couldn’t crack the .700 barrier. If Posey and Sandoval don’t hit, the Giants are in trouble because outfielders/utilitymen Brandon Crawford and Angel Pagan won’t be providing much pop.
Another concern is Brian Wilson, who after a dream 2010 season, had control issues last year and his season-ending elbow injury in 2011 should be worrisome for the Giants. He was able to pitch effectively through pain last season, with 36 saves. But a 1.47 WHIP is a huge warning sign that his mechanics weren’t right. Wilson wasn’t nearly the same closer who struck out 93 in 74 innings with a 1.81 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 2010.
Bold prediction: Bumgarner was a popular pick in fantasy baseball this year with good reason, and will finish in the top three in Cy Young votes in 2012. He may be only 22, the No. 3 starter on his own staff and went 13-13 last season, however, Bumgarner’s stuff (8.4 strikeouts per nine innings) is filthy and he’s ready to jump into the pitching elite this year.
Team: Los Angeles Dodgers
Projected finish: Third
Season outlook: It’s not often that you have previous year’s MVP runner-up (Matt Kemp) and Cy Young winner (Clayton Kershaw) and are picked to finish third in your division. But the ugly Frank McCourt situation has prevented the Dodgers from adding payroll and they’ve had to live with their mistakes, such as thinking James Loney is an everyday first baseman.
The Dodgers brought up sparkplug shortstop Dee Gordon for 2012, and he should provide much-needed energy for the Los Angeles. But the big problem for the Dodgers will be that behind Kershaw and Chad Billingsley, the rotation has a bunch of question marks.
Why they can win the West: Los Angeles will once again be reliant on Kemp (39 home runs, 126 RBI and 40 steals in 2011) and Kershaw (21-5, 248 strikeouts and 0.98 WHIP), but it’s hard to imagine either of them posting better statistics in 2012. To win the West, the Dodgers will need better seasons of out Billingsley (1.48 WHIP and 4.21 ERA) and Andre Ethier, whose .789 OPS isn’t good enough for a right fielder in a lineup that needs more production.
Since there isn’t much power on the team beyond Kemp, the Dodgers will rely on Gordon to set the table for the MVP hopeful and wreak havoc on the base paths by stealing 40+ bases. That’s asking a lot of a 23-year-old player, but if he can produce, the Dodgers will be a much more interesting team.
Why they may falter: Lack of offense behind Kemp is definitely an issue. Players such as Juan Uribe and Juan Rivera have seen better days at the plate, which is unfortunate for LA because it needs them to drive in runs this season. But the biggest issue will be with pitching. There are so many questions about the Dodgers. Can Billingsley bounce back? Who will produce among Aaron Harang, Chris Capuano and Ted Lilly? All were solid starting pitchers at one point in their careers, but how effective they can be in 2012 remains to be seen.
Another question mark is at the closer’s spot. Can Javy Guerra save games consistently over the course of a full season? There are too many unknowns to place the Dodgers higher than third in the West.
Bold prediction: Kemp won’t drop off to 2010 levels, but don’t expect another MVP-like season in 2012. He received his $160 million contract in the offseason and hasn’t proven he has the fire to be great year in and year out yet. He has the potential to have another Triple Crown-type season, but based on his past behavior, I say he’ll be back in the 20 home run, 90 RBI range.
Team: Colorado Rockies
Projected finish: Fourth
Season outlook: The Rockies will lean heavily on all-world shortstop Troy Tulowitzki and outfielder Carlos Gonzalez to make up for their lack of starting pitching in 2012. Both are legitimate MVP candidates and will need to perform at that level to give Colorado a shot at the West. Trading ace Ubaldo Jimenez last season left the Rockies with Jhoulys Chacin as their ace in a rotation that features 49-year-old Jamie Moyer. Things can change during the course of the season, but the outlook in 2012 isn’t all that promising for Colorado.
Why they can win the West: A lot would have to go right for the Rockies. Both the Diamondbacks and Giants would need to struggle and Colorado’s lineup would have to score a lot of runs to make up for its pitching staff. Drew Pomeranz, acquired in the Jimenez deal, could step up and be an impact pitcher behind Chacin and Jeremy Guthrie (acquired from Baltimore in the offseason); but this isn’t likely and the Rockies offense will have to cover the team’s flaws.
Tulowitzki and Gonzalez, who had a Triple Crown-type season in 2010, will certainly mash. But if offseason import Michael Cuddyer (signed as a free agent from Minnesota) pans out and outfielder Dexter Fowler matures, this lineup becomes interesting. Cuddyer could hit 30 home runs and drive in 100 runs, and Fowler has the ability to set the table for these sluggers while stealing 50 bases.
Why they may falter: Same old story for Colorado: Not enough pitching. They didn’t have enough to compete even before the Jimenez trade. Chacin had some solid numbers last year (3.62 ERA and 150 strikeouts in 194 innings), but he shouldn’t be a staff ace. Guthrie lost 17 games last year in Baltimore with a 4+ ERA, and it’s hard to imagine him improving upon those numbers in the mile high air. If this were the 2001 season and not 2012, Moyer would look like a solid pickup. However, Moyer is 49 and the No. 4 on Colorado’s staff. This doesn’t bode well for the Rockies.
There’s also the problem of hitting punch beyond Tulowitzki, Gonzalez and Cuddyer. First baseman Todd Helton is in the twilight of his career and anything more than 20 home runs would a bonus. Players such as shortstop Marco Scutaro (acquired from Boston) and Fowler are sure to help the team get runners on base, but this team needs more offensive depth.
Bold prediction: Rafael Betancourt will save more than 45 games for the Rockies this season. He’s been shaky as a middle relief man at times and is pitching in a hitter-friendly ballpark. But closers have had plenty of success in Colorado, and the Rockies aren’t going to blow too many teams out. This is just a hunch, but he’s my candidate for the “Randomly Awesome Closer” award for 2012. For context, last year’s winner was Joel Hanrahan.
Team: San Diego Padres
Projected finish: Fifth
Season outlook: Things look pretty bleak in terms of results for the Padres in 2012, as they’re in the process of rebuilding and developing young talent. San Diego made headlines this offseason by dealing ace Mat Latos to the Reds for enigmatic starter Edison Volquez and young slugging first baseman Yonder Alonso. While this will help the Padres long-term, it doesn’t do a whole lot this season, because Volquez is a wild card and Alonso is still maturing. Behind Volquez is a pair of solid starters in Clayton Richard and Corey Luebke.
Offensively, the Padres are led by 40-steal man Cameron Maybin and are awaiting the return of slugger Carlos Quentin (acquired from the White Sox in the offseason), who’s out with injury until early May.
Why they can win the West: Never say never (remember, this team was in the NL West race until the end in 2010 with 90 victories), but it would take a special alignment from the stars for San Diego to win the West title in 2012. This team can boast a bunch of speedsters, such as Maybin and outfielder Will Venable. But beyond Quentin, the Padres don’t have a 20 home run hitter in the lineup.
If Volquez can resurrect his career, and Richard and Luebke post sub-4 ERAs, San Diego won’t embarrass itself. This won’t be a lost season for the Padres, though, if they can bring along Alonso and starting pitcher Casey Kelly, who was acquired in the Adrian Gonzalez deal.
Why they may falter: The Padres have the makings of a 75-win team. As stated above, there isn’t much firepower in the San Diego batting order, and even with Quentin aboard, it’s hard to tell how his power will project in Petco Park. Furthermore, he hasn’t stayed healthy for a whole season and often has nagging injuries.
There also isn’t much pitching depth behind Volquez, Richard and Luebke, as Micah Owings and Anthony Bass aren’t exactly strong options. If any of the top three are injured, the Padres will be scrambling for arms.
Bold prediction: Despite having little to no protection around him, Quentin will be productive when healthy this season and hit more than 30 home runs for the second time in his career (2008, with 36).
MLB Division Previews: Phillies still own NL East
By Seth Needle, Baseball Focus Staff Writer
Team: Philadelphia Phillies
Projected finish: First
Season outlook: Another year older, the 2012 Phillies aren’t as dominant as they may have appeared at the outset of last season. Yes, their rotation is still the thing dreams are made of, with Roy Halladay, Clff Lee, Cole Hamels and second-year starter Vance Worley holding it down. And yes, they improved the back end of their bullpen by signing dominant closer Jonathan Papelbon to a four-year contract.
What they didn’t address, however, is their downward trending offense, which is sure to take another big hit with the absence of Ryan Howard for at least the first half and Chase Utley for yet another prolonged stretch. They will absolutely benefit from a full season of Hunter Pence, who has the ability to put a team on his back. With Shane Victorino entering a walk year, his plate production may hit new highs as well.
Their success in 2012 will depend on their offense producing on a consistent basis and their bullpen keeping runs off the board. Halladay, Lee, Hamels (also in a walk year) and Worley is as fearsome a foursome as the majors has to offer.
Why they will win the East: Pitching. Simply put, no team can match their starters consistently yet. In 2011, their staff ERA was 3.02, the lowest on record in the majors since 1989. Some teams in the NL East are getting closer, but for now, the East will be the Phillies to lose with their current rotation. Halladay and Lee are getting older, sure, but until their production slows, the rest of NL East will have to take their shots.
Why they may falter: Offense. Howard is out until at least the All Star break. Back is Jim Thome in a platoon to cover first with Ty Wigginton and John Mayberry, Jr. If this platoon falters, the Phillies could be in trouble, especially with Utley out for what looks like the first month. Without their regular 3-4, the offense will rely on Pence, Victorino, Placido Polanco and Mayberry Jr. Not a great place to be for the five-time division winner.
Bold prediction: I mentioned it before, but Hunter Pence needs to carry this team for the first half, and I totally expect him to. After coming over to the Phillies from the Astros last season, Pence recorded .324/.394/.560 in slash statistics. Expect something similar to that for the right fielder in his first full season in Philadelphia.
Team: Atlanta Braves
Projected finish: Second
Season outlook: After failing to hold on their wild card lead down the stretch, the Braves surprised some by doing next to nothing in the off season. Ironically enough, the Braves made the first big move, trading away Derek Lowe for a lower-level prospect. Doing so allows the team to further rely on their gold ticket for years to come – their plethora of young, talented arms. After veteran Tim Hudson, the Braves have Tommy Hanson, Mike Minor, Jair Jurrjens and Brandon Beachy.
Furthermore, waiting in the wings in the minors are three of Baseball America’s top 50 prospects in Julio Teheran, Arodys Vizcaino and Randall Delgado. While the Phillies currently have the best rotation in the division, the Braves will very soon.
Offensively, the club needs to improve. They were in the bottom half of the NL in runs scored. Third-year slugger Jason Heyward needs to adjust his swing and find his rookie-year magic. Freddie Freeman has to continue improving to solidify the middle of the lineup and Michael Bourn needs to show the world he’s capable of handling lead-off duty for a front-running team. Brian McCann is the only sure bet, as he’s good for close to .300, 25 and 85 each year.
Why they will win the East: If the offense improves and its younger pitchers take another step forward, this team will be very tough to beat. Approaching September last season, the Braves had one of the four best records in the majors before faltering, so the team knows its abilities. With lights-out, second-year closer Craig Kimbrel taking the ball in the ninth and equally effective Jonny Venters before him, their bullpen has the ability to shorten games considerably. Their pitching is absolutely their best asset entering 2012, so don’t be surprised if they end up with 4-5 pitchers with double-digit wins.
Why they may falter: Inexperience and offense. With all of the praise now proclaimed for their young arms, they are exactly that – young. As Heyward can attest for the other side of the ball, great initial seasons can be washed away quickly. If Jurrjens’ bad spring continues and Minor or Beachy falter, the team may be forced to reach to the minor leagues quickly, which becomes risky business.
Offensively, their problems have been stated above and they need to improve. Dan Uggla is still there and a healthy Martin Prado will definitely help, but who else will take the next step? If Heyward improves, their offense could take leaps forward.
Bold prediction: Julio Teheran. The rookie suffered through a miserable spring and then was bumped into the minors with the team’s recent signing of Livan Hernandez. With Hudson hurt and Hernandez an elder, a rotation spot may open up soon enough. Teheran is likely the staff’s future, so don’t be surprised if he flashes some of this high-ceiling potential in the second-half of 2012.
Team: Miami Marlins
Projected finish: Third
Season outlook: New coach, new ballpark, new face of the franchise and new attitude. Anything else different from last season? With the team’s new ballpark opening, ownership mandated an overhaul, and the normally-frugal Marlins nearly doubled their payrolls. Along with Ozzie Guillen, the Marlins signed All-Star shortshop Jose Reyes, workhouse pitcher Mark Buehrle and lights-out closer Heath Bell. The team also pushed hard to ink Albert Pujols before he agreed with the Angels.
With Reyes, the team gets a top-of-the-order speedster and the reigning NL batting champion. His defense is shaky at times, which makes the left side of their infield suspect, as former shortstop Hanley Ramirez will now man third. In Buehrle, the team has a genuine innings eater to pair with Josh Johnson, Anibal Sanchez, Ricky Nolasco and newcomer Carlos Zambrano.
Sure, the rotation doesn’t have the glamor of the Phillies or the ballyhoo of the Braves, but they have the ability to be just as dominant. From their days in Chicago together, Guillen knows how to use Buehrle and Johnson should be healthy after being shut down early last season with shoulder inflammation. The wild card is Zambrano, who can be one of the game’s best power pitchers when his mind and body are healthy. Bell should help stabilize the back end of the bullpen now that Leo Nunez no longer exists, nor does he pitch for the team.
Offensively, the team should put up a boatload of runs with Reyes and Ramirez at the top and monster-slugger-in-waiting Giancarlo Stanton following up. Stanton will be the most feared hitter in the division soon, possibly even 2012. Behind him are the talented Logan Morrison and Gaby Sanchez, both of whom have serious offensive skills and can become very tough outs. If just one of these two become consistent threats, the Marlins’ 1-5 spots will be scary.
Why they will win the East: Their acquisitions could put them over the top and lead them to an NL East crown. Without adding anything, many experts may have seen how well Miami has developed its youth and picked the Marlins to be serious contenders for the division or a wild card spot. Adding a serious run scorer, a solid starter in a pitcher’s ballpark, an All Star closer and World Series-winning manager certainly won’t hurt those prognostications. If the Marlins’ youth matures and their acquisitions gel and prove their worth, this team has an outside shot at stealing the division from the Phillies.
Why they may falter: Just the opposite reason they have a shot to win the East: The team is still young and immature (see: Ramirez, Hanley). His move to the third base has gone by no means seamless, and Reyes is no defensive wizard. Thus, their left side may give up more infield hits than should be allowed. Stanton’s has some serious power, but it still has holes and pitchers, especially the ones in this division, could attack them. Morrison and Sanchez are talents, but also need to improve and stake themselves as everyday players.
Is Reyes capable of being healthy all year and winning another batting crown? Can Buehrle adjust to the National League? Will Zambrano hold it together for a full season? These are serious question marks, and Guillen may not be able manage all these personalities while trying to win games on the field. A lot is expected of Miami and Guillen is in the tough position of making it all blend together – the Marlins success will be heavily tied how well he does his job without distraction.
Bold prediction: Anibal Sanchez. Johnson and Buehrle are certainly the team’s top two starters and are tough matchups. Sanchez has incredible stuff, and his past two seasons of mid-3.00 ERAs aren’t aberrations. If he can build on these seasons and continue to rack up strikeouts (202 in 2011), he’ll make the top of their rotation enviable to most other major league squads.
Team: Washington Nationals
Projected finish: Fourth
Season outlook: With 16 hurlers recording sub-3.00 ERAs and five more under 3.20, 2011 quickly became known as the year of the pitcher. Two of these five are now on the Washington Nationals – Jordan Zimmerman and Gio Gonzalez. Of course, Gonzalez did that for the Athletics, but now joins a rotation that has some serious Cy Young contenders. If 2012 continues to be pitching-heavy, then the Nationals very well may make their first postseason since 1981, when they were then the Expos.
Headed by young phenom Stephen Strasburg, who will consistently have no-hit stuff, the top of the Nationals’ rotation matches up favorably against almost every team in the NL. In addition, the Nationals signed boom-or-bust free agent pitcher Edwin Jackson, who was invaluable to the Cardinals down the stretch in 2011. The squad also boasts one of the best bullpens with Drew Storen and Tyler Clippard both recording strong 2011 campaigns (1.02 and 0.83 WHIPs, respectively). Add Brad Lidge on a 1-year deal, and the bullpen should continue to be strength.
Largely, the Nationals’ season success will depend on their offense. Their mega-splash signing of Jayson Werth for $126 million was a bust in 2011, as he tried to do too much. The Nats hope that Werth will find his comfort zone and play to his strengths as a solid all-around player instead of attempting to live up to his contract. However, their most recent mega signing – extending Ryan Zimmerman for seven years and over $100 million – will ensure their best hitter will remain in Washington for the long-term.
While these big bats loom in the middle of their lineup, the top two hitters are a question mark. Ian Desmond and Danny Espinosa, who both have speed, aren’t great on-base threats. In fact, Desmond failed to break the .300 threshold in OBP in 2011 – not ideal by any means for a leadoff hitter. If these hitters can adjust to hit for contact and take more walks to set the plate for the mashers behind them, the Nationals could become scary. Also not to be forgotten is fourth-year man Michael Morse, who burst on to the scene in 2011 with 31 home runs and .910 OPS. If he continues to mash into 2012, the Nationals’ 3-4-5 has the potential to be lethal.
Why they will win the East: Like every other team in the division so far, pitching. Strasberg, Gonzalez, Zimmerman and Jackson should keep them in most games. While Strasberg will be on an innings count, his impact during those frames could be enough to determine most outcomes. Each of the top four pitchers have live fastballs and decent-to-above-average change-ups. Good luck to hitters trying to guess, especially against Strasberg. Between their starters and the backend of their bullpen, opposing hitters won’t have many chances to strike, so they better do so when presented the opportunity.
Why they may falter: Undisciplined offense. Simply put, this team could strike out A LOT. Between Morse, Espinosa, Werth and Desmond, 150 Ks per batter isn’t out of reach. To improve offensively and truly strike fear into opposing pitchers, these hitters need to become more disciplined and take close pitches. Doing so will expand the number of good pitches they see, and improve their chances for the long ball. Failing to adjust, however, could doom them. Coming out on the losing end of a lot of one-run games due to offensive failures could be a recurring theme for this team.
Bold prediction: Not that he’ll “surprise” anyone, but no team will have a better midseason acquisition than the Nationals with Bryce Harper. Sure, he’s an unpolished rookie, but he has such raw power and unbelievable drive, that he may very end up putting the team on his back in the second-half of the season. With Harper in tow, the middle of the Nationals’ lineup becomes that much tougher to pitch around.
Team: New York Mets
Projected Place: Fifth
Season outlook: The days of the powerhouse New York Mets are now all but over. Gone is All Star shortshop Jose Reyes and All Star centerfielder Carlos Beltran. The only real link to the Omar Minaya over-spending regime is Johan Santana, who returns to the rotation for the first time since September 2010. While he wasn’t lights out in spring training, he still has the pitching pedigree and stuff to be an ace on most staffs.
The loss of Reyes will hurt this team significantly, as they now need to replace his offense at the top of their lineup. The Mets did little to address their waning offense during the offseason, instead choosing to rely on their home-grown talent. While they have plenty of decent options in Lucas Duda, Ruben Tejada and Daniel Murphy, none of these players really have the ability to affect games the same way Reyes did.
Where the Mets need the biggest contributions are from their previous offensive producers in David Wright (finally healthy) and Jason Bay, who has looked lost at the plate since his concussion two years ago. In addition, first basemen Ike Davis has the ability to hit for power and to contact, but needs to prove he can stay healthy. If these three middle-of-the-order bats produce, then the team might avoid the division cellar. The Mets’ bullpen should be bright spot, however, with the additions of power arms Frank Francisco, Jon Rauch and Ramon Ramirez. However, their rotation will need to be consistent to contend, something it was unable to do in 2011.
Why they will win the East: Have a lot of things go right, honestly. Santana will need to prove he’s back to pre-surgery form and capable of staying healthy all year. Bay, Wright and Davis will have to slug to keep the team in games. The rotation past Santana – Mike Pelfrey, Jon Niese and Dillon Gee – need to improve on their 2011 seasons and establish themselves as solid starters. Niese and Gee were some of the lone bright spots in 2011 and can become effective No. 3 and No. 4 starters with grooming. Pelfrey has the brightest upside of the bunch, but has been inconsistent over the course of his career, weaving 13- and 15-win, mid-3.00 ERA seasons with stinkers. If he settles down, mixes his pitches better and learns how to pitch out of jams – his WHIPs have always been high – he can solidify himself as a dangerous No. 2 starter. These are a lot of ifs, however.
Why they may Falter: Lack of pitching and offense. Yeah, that’s pretty much how you lose games and divisions, right? As stated, their entire rotation is a question mark. They have high upside, but certainly could slide. The team’s offense is lacking and may rely too heavily on Wright to carry the load.
Manager Terry Collins has a tough job ahead of him in 2012 – the team is quickly becoming irrelevant (actually slashing more than $50 million in the offseason, the most by any team ever). If he can’t get the absolute most of his players in 2012, the team is destined for a last-place finish.
Bold prediction: Ike Davis. Hampered by injuries and sicknesses, the potential slugger will finally get a chance to show his skills and hold down first base with above-average defense. The team desperately needs another consistent contributor behind Wright, and Davis has the ability to do so. Look for his breakout year finally in 2012.
MLB Division Previews: New stars will push Angels toward West title
By Pat Ouellette, Baseball Focus Staff Writer
Team: Angels
Projected finish: First
Season outlook: Not unlike the 2011 Red Sox coming out of spring training, this year’s Angels team is a rock-star group and World Series favorite after a huge offseason. However, Los Angeles hopes the final results are better than that of Boston last season.
Signing one of the great hitters of all time in Albert Pujols and adding former Rangers ace CJ Wilson as a No. 3 or 4 starter will create the type of excitement that generates talk of a 100-win team. The Los Angeles rotation already features one of the most formidable 1-2 punches in baseball in Jered Weaver and Dan Haren, and the talented (albeit inconsistent) Ervin Santana. Tack on the return of Kendrys Morales (34 home runs in 2009) after a year and a half on the DL and you start to realize that the Angels hype is real. Los Angeles has loads of talent in all phases of the game and is a favorite to reach the World Series for the second time in team history.
Why they can win the West: Signing Pujols will certainly aid an offense that lagged at times last season and had only the 17th most runs scored in baseball; but this team can be special because of its vaunted rotation. The Angels’ starting pitching is deep, talented and durable (all four with more than 200 innings pitched during each of the past two seasons). Aside from maybe the Rays or Phillies, no rotation in baseball is better equipped to handle 162 games than the Angels.
Unlike the Phillies and Rays, however, offense shouldn’t be much of an issue for the Angels. With Pujols on board, Morales returning to health and a maturing Mark Trumbo (29 home runs in 2011), the Angels will be far less reliant on aging veterans Torii Hunter, Vernon Wells and Bobby Abreu.
An underrated weapon on this Los Angeles team is its solid middle bullpen, led by Scott Downs, who proved to be worth his three-year contract with a 1.34 ERA last season. Behind him are the ageless but solid LaTroy Hawkins (seems like it was just yesterday he was racking up 6+ ERA seasons with the Twins, huh?), Hisanori Takahashi and Kevin Jepsen. The man who comes after them, however, is the one to be worried about (see below).
Why they may falter: Closer Jordan Walden may be the weak link on an otherwise impressive staff. Walden did rack up 32 saves last season, but his command is an issue. He walked 26 in 60 innings in 2011, which is a poor number when you consider Haren gave out 33 free passes in 238 innings. Walking that many batters is playing with fire, and the worst thing that can happen to the Angels is an unreliable closer, so keep an eye on Walden’s walk rate early on.
Bold Prediction:
You’ve heard about five-tool outfielder Mike Trout and know he’s a top-three prospect in baseball. In fact, he’s going to start the season in the Angels minor leagues. But when will this phenom reach the majors for good and start living up to his potential? In short, as soon as the Angels either get rid of Abreu or Wells, or have the sense to sit them and get Trout into their outfield, where he’ll reside for the near future. Whenever Trout does reach the big leagues in a full-time capacity, look for the same type of impact that Jacoby Ellsbury had on the Red Sox late in 2007 and in 2008. Having a young stud who can do everything on the field will invigorate an already-talented club and ensure the lineup is more than just the Pujols show.
Team: Rangers
Projected finish: Second
Season outlook: The Rangers have won back-to-back AL West titles and captured a pair of AL pennants in the process – and they aren’t even favored to repeat as AL West champions? Such is life when your rival steals your ace starting pitcher (CJ Wilson) and happen to ink mega-star Albert Pujols.
While the Rangers lost one top-flight pitcher in Wilson, they hope to have replaced him with an even better one in Asian import Yu Darvish. Darvish brings with him attention reminiscent of Daisuke Matsuzaka debut back in 2007, and has the stuff to back it up. Beyond Darvish and closer Joe Nathan, the Rangers weren’t too active on the free agent market this offseason and chose to build within. After watching the Texas front office develop the likes of Ian Kinsler, Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz and Derek Holland while giving second life to Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz, who can blame them?
Why they can win the West: Texas slotted Feliz in the back of their rotation after recording 30+ saves in both 2010 and 2011, but the hope is that his electric stuff will translate to that of an upper-tier starter. Both Feliz and Darvish are huge “ifs,” and in the instance they pan out as reliable starters, the Rangers rotation becomes dangerous. Furthermore, Holland had a solid 16 win season in 2011 and came of age in the postseason, posting a 2-0 record and 3.38 ERA. Combining the Rangers offense with Holland potentially taking the next step, and Darvish and Feliz bringing the goods, and Texas can stay right with the Angels in the West.
The fact that this Rangers team could improve upon an offense that scored the third-most runs in baseball last year is downright frightening. Former AL MVP Hamilton is in his contract year and Cruz (8 home runs in the 2011 playoffs), Kinsler and Mike Napoli are all in their absolute primes, so Texas will have no problem getting runs across the plate.
Why they may falter: The same exact reason why they can win their third-straight division title: Starting pitching. Because of Matsuzaka’s general failings as a reliable starter, it’s hard to trust Darvish to be a complete success. Darvish looked solid during spring training, but so did Matsuzaka at times during his Red Sox career. Inconsistency killed Matsuzaka and, unfairly or not, we need to see that Darvish can get through more than six innings, and that won’t fatigue throughout the season. Much of the same can be said for Feliz, who will be working with a pitch count early on in 2011 and likely an innings cap. He will need to be a starting pitcher that Texas can rely on in order for the Rangers to be a force in the West.
Bold prediction: Joe Nathan has the resume of a great closer (261 career saves) and gritted out 2011 with determination after missing 2010 because of Tommy John surgery. However, the most talent in the Rangers bullpen belongs to reliever-turned-starter-turned-reliever Alexi Ogando. Ogando recorded a 1.30 ERA in the Rangers bullpen in 2010 with 39 strikeouts in 41 innings. Nathan is a huge injury risk and Ogando will likely assume the closer’s role by season’s end.
Team: Mariners
Projected finish: Third
Season Outlook: There are so many teams rebuilding in baseball, normally the Royals and Pirates, they’re often hard to keep track of. However, the Mariners are one team you will want to keep an eye on late in 2012 going into 2013. Seattle has a trio of young prospects – Danny Hultzen, James Paxton and Taijuan Walker – that may as well be dubbed “Generation K Revisited.” All three have live fastballs and nasty breaking pitches, but unfortunately are unlikely to see the big leagues in 2012.
As for this season, the Mariners shook things up this offseason by dealing young starting pitcher Michael Pineda for Yankees catcher/DH Jesus Montero. Seattle recognized that it has lacked big bats since the early 2000s, and gave up a rich bounty in Pineda, but Montero is a special hitter who will compete for batting titles and hit with power.
Why they can win the West: While the Montero deal was critical to Seattle’s success down the road, it will hurt them in the short term. With no Pineda, the rotation gets dicey after ace Felix Hernandez and solid starter Jason Vargas. Simply put, if Kevin Millwood is your No. 3 starter, your rotation has issues. With Pineda, at least the Mariners had a puncher’s chance of winning with a great 1-2 combination.
But with a dearth of pitching and an offense that will struggle beyond Ichiro, Justin Smoak, Dustin Ackley and Montero, Seattle has little chance of winning the West. That said, watching those three young hitters develop will be a treat for Mariner fans.
Why they may falter: The Mariners just don’t have the guns on offense or in the rotation to keep up with the Angels or Rangers. If nothing else, Seattle should learn from Baltimore’s mistakes of bringing up starting pitching too early and ruining their confidence. Things are going in the right direction for the Mariners for the first time in years and they shouldn’t potentially hurt that by trying to develop their young starters too quickly.
Bold prediction: Ichiro will return to his .300-hitting self and once again rack up 200 hits as though it were a common accomplishment. He looked energized this spring by all the young talent surrounding him and will want to stick around for when Seattle returns to prominence.
Team: Oakland A’s
Projected Finish: fourth
Season outlook: It was an interesting offseason for Billy Beane and the A’s. Similar to Hudson and Mulder almost 10 years ago, Beane traded his top two starting pitchers in Trevor Cahill and Gio Gonzalez, and closer Andrew Bailey for some talented prospects. But he also signed Cuban defector and YouTube sensation Yoenis Cespedes to a four-year $36 million contract, which was a completely out-of-character move for Oakland. Cespedes is talented, but doesn’t really fit into the A’s value model of building from within and dealing players nearing the end of arbitration for prospects.
So where does that leave the A’s? Unfortunately for them, they’re still in no-man’s land. They have a limited payroll, no true ace to speak of (Brandon McCarthy is a solid pitcher and not an ace) and lost the sole run producer in 2011 in Josh Willingham (29 home runs and 98 RBI) to free agency. One positive for the A’s so far is their accuracy regarding Andrew Bailey’s propensity to get injured, as their former closer is currently out until July or August for the Red Sox.
Beane has gone out of his way to explain that the “Moneyball” approach has extended to the
base paths and put an emphasis on speed. The Oakland offense will revolve around second
baseman Jemile Weeks, who was the only A’s player to hit .300 in 2011, Coco Crisp (49 steals
in 2011) and Cespedes.
Why they can win the West: I don’t believe we have enough space here to describe the types of things that would have to go right for the A’s to win the West. Frankly, it’s not happening, and this team is building toward 2013.
Why does 2013 look bright? Because those prospects they received for Cahill and Gonzalez are pretty good. Jarrod Parker, who came off of Tommy John surgery within the past couple of years, is the true stud of the group. Parker added a two-seamer late last year to his fastball-slider-changeup repertoire and has the makeup of a top-flight starter. He was battling for the No. 5 spot in the rotation until the end of camp, but will be with the A’s sooner rather than later. Oakland also received pitchers Brad Peacock and Tommy Milone in the Gonzalez deal, both of whom project to be mid-rotation starters. The A’s received good value for two pitchers who were likely to cash in elsewhere, and we’ll find out over the next two years whether they were the right deals.
Why they may falter: Since Miguel Tejada left and Eric Chavez’s career was decimated by injuries, Oakland has had trouble filling the offensive void. Sure, they’ve had success with one-year players such as Frank Thomas and Willingham, but haven’t brought in a hitter who will be productive long-term in a long time.
Regardless of how raw it is, and not having Brett Anderson back until July or August (lost to Tommy John surgery in 2011), the A’s have pitching with the potential to be very good. The reason they won’t even come close to competing now, or until Cespedes develops, is they don’t even have one power bat to hang with the powers of the West.
Bold prediction: Bartolo Colon loses 100 pounds and stays healthy. Ahh, just kidding. That’s a bit too bold, even for this section. Josh Reddick, acquired by the A’s for Bailey, will become a fan favorite in Oakland. Reddick not only plays hard, but will approach 20 home runs while providing solid defense in right field for the A’s.
MLB Division Previews: Yankees still lead AL East
By Seth Needle, Baseball Focus Staff Writer
Team: New York Yankees
Projected finish: First
Season outlook: After a busy offseason addressing their desperate need for pitching, the Yankees still remain one of the game’s super powers and a legitimate threat to represent the American League in the World Series. Last season, the Bombers relied far too heavily on ace CC Sabathia and hoped to get by with the combo platter of AJ Burnett, Ivan Nova, Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon. In response to a five-game ALDS loss to the Tigers in 2011, the Bombers acquired young phenom Michael Pineda and seasoned veteran Hiroki Kuroda.
With Nova having another year under his belt, especially another season with Russell Martin, the Yankees have quickly addressed their pitching woes. Expect Pineda to shake his mediocre spring training and bounce back in a big way come the second half of the season. After a year where they scored the second-most runs in the majors, adding these much-needed arms should be enough to get them into the postseason and beyond.
Why they will win the East: Despite the increasing number of aging veterans, the Yankees are still primed to win their second-straight AL East title. Their pitching staff is revamped. Their infield is still one of the most complete and accomplished in the entire majors, despite their average age of 32.6.
Their lineup is tough to pitch around in any spot, save possibly the nine spot in Brett Gardner, whose batting numbers regressed across the board last year. Their defense could use to get better, recording a middle-of-the-pack .983 field percentage in ’11. However, no other team in the division did more than the Yankees in the offseason, so the East remains theirs to lose yet again.
Why they may falter: A combination of two things: Rapid decline from their aging stars and steps back from second-year pitchers (Nova, Pineda). Hate to sound clichéd here, but could this be the year Mariano Rivera finally falters? But even if he does, David Robertson and Rafael Soriano are waiting in the wings.
Bold prediction: Hard to say he’s under the radar, but after a horrid 2011, Phil Hughes could be yet another big performer for the Yankees. We all know he has electric stuff when on and healthy (times which have been few and far between). I’m guessing he bounces back in a big way this season.
Team: Boston Red Sox
Projected finish: Second
Season outlook: Last we saw of the Boston nine, the Baltimore Orioles had set flame to their postseason hopes, rallying to beat them in the last plate appearance of both teams’ seasons. Exit Theo Epstein, Terry Francona, Jonathan Papelbon, Tim Wakefield, Jason Varitek, JD Drew, Jed Lowrie and Marco Scutaro. Enter Bobby Valentine, Andrew Bailey, Mark Melancon, Cody Ross and Ryan Sweeney.
To sum up the past six months for the Red Sox: Chaos. The team has turned over a lot – especially with their pitching corps. Daniel Bard is now in the rotation, along with promising young lefty Felix Doubront. Andrew Bailey was supposed to be the heir apparent to Papelbon, but is now down until the All Star Break, leaving uber-utility pitcher Alfredo Aceves to close.
The rotation is still anchored by veterans Jon Lester, Josh Beckett and Clay Buchholz, all of whom have something to prove this season. Their offensive may have gotten better with Ross and a healthy Carl Crawford, which is tough considering they scored the most runs of any team in 2011. Their final result will rely heavily upon how the rotation and bullpen hold up, and if the team can survive the early rash of injuries.
Why they will win the East: Pitching and defense, obviously. Remember, before their epic collapse last year, the East was very much in their grasp. Their top three pitchers matchup well against any in the AL and their infield defense is very good, boasting three gold glovers. Adding Cody Ross, whose scorching spring (6 HR) had people gawking, will stabilize their lineup and give them another much-needed RH bat.
If the Sox can avoid a repeat of last year’s stretch drive, where Francona could only rely on less than a handful of pitchers, they have as good a chance as anyone in the division to raise the banner.
Why they may falter: Injuries. Already, Crawford is expected to miss at least the first month, Bailey and Daisuke Matsuzaka the first half and Beckett is seeing specialists for his thumb. Losing any of their top three pitchers will be a killer. If Adrian Gonzalez’s shoulder fatigue acts up, or if Kevin Youkilis goes down early for the third-straight year, the team may very well be in danger of missing the playoffs for the third-straight year.
Bold prediction: Mike Aviles. A lot of experts were against the cost-cutting trade of Marco Scutaro, but the Sox brass is very high on the former Royal. While he may not have the defense of Scutaro, he has better speed and better swing tailored for Fenway’s friendly confines. A .300/.350/.450 split isn’t totally out of the question.
Team: Tampa Bay Rays
Projected finish: Third
Season outlook: The Tampa Bay Rays may have a gripe here for not being in either of the top two spots, and I can’t really argue too much against them. They have the division’s best rotation with David Price, James Shields, Jeff Niemann, Jeremy Hellickson and rookie phenom Matt Moore. Their lineup is still littered with tough outs in Evan Longoria, Ben Zobrist, BJ Upton, Desmond Jennings, Matt Joyce and new/old Ray Carlos Pena.
The Rays’ bullpen remains strong with Kyle Farnsworth and Joel Peralta. Switching Johnny Damon for Luke Scott at DH may lose some offense, but adding Fernando Rodney to their vaunted bullpen may make up the difference. Manager Joe Maddon always manages to get the most out of his players, so expecting anything less in 2012 is wrong.
Why they will win the East: Pitching. In Price, Shields, Hellickson and Moore, the team can throw four potential aces at you, all of which have back-breaking stuff. The rest of their pitching depth is incredible as well, with Wade Miller and Alex Cobb ready to jump in when needed. Their team was the only AL squad in the playoffs with a rotation that logged more than 1,000 innings. While their offseason doesn’t have the names of the Yankees or Red Sox, it’s relentless and productive. Hard to do, but don’t’ forget Evan Longoria, who pretty much put the team on his back through September. He may more to his team than any one player in the AL East.
Why they may falter: Offense. Tough to go against the point I just made the other way here, but the team was right in the middle of the pack in runs scored last season, actually being outscored by the Orioles. While their pitching should hold opposing offenses to low scores, the team will need to find production somewhere. Longoria answered that in September and perhaps BJ Upton will finally produce in the fashion we’ve all been expecting. Carlos Pena’s bat could reawaken back in Tropicana Park, or maybe Desmond Jennings gets off to another torrid start. Any of these scenarios can happen, but some will definitely need to play out in order for the Rays to avoid falling in a hole in the tough, tough AL East.
Bold prediction: Joel Peralta. With recent news that closer Kyle Farnsworth will begin the season on the DL, someone will need to close games. The Rays front organization is very high on Peralta and see him as their closer of the future. For the Rays to stay in contention early, they’ll need to close out tight games and this pressure will fall heavily on their impromptu closer.
Team: Toronto Blue Jays
Projected finish: Fourth
Season outlook: The Blue Jays have certainly been moving in the right direction since current GM Alex Anthopoulos took over. Through the course of several trades in the last few years, he has accumulated a number of valuable pieces that have this squad knocking on the door to compete with the big boys. Their rotation has scary potential, headed by Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow, flanked by heralded rookie Henderson Alvarez and Dustin McGowan. If some of these young arms are able to rise up, they may be able to neutralize the division’s tough lineups.
Adding Sergio Santos, Francisco Cordero and Darren Oliver to the back end of their bullpen instantly makes it one of the deepest and toughest in the division. Their lineup, likewise, has the potential to be lethal and very tough for opposing pitching. Jose Bautista aside, who will be among the top MVP vote getters at season’s end, second-year slugger Brett Lawrie, Colby Rasmus, Kelly Johnson, Adam Lind and J.P Arencibia should be able to put together bundles of runs. Whether or not Lawrie and Rasmus live up to their highly speculated potential is a major for the Jays and their postseason hopes.
Why they will win the East: A lot of things will have to go right for the Jays to take home their first division title since 1993. Their pitching will need to remain stingy and tough the entire season, their offseason needs to take the much-discussed step forward and hit good pitching. Their bullpen is also as good as any in the league and the only real flaw may be defense, which needs to improve (see below),. If their starters can keep games close, their have an outside shot at 90+ wins.
Why they may falter: Defense. Simply put, this team wasn’t very good defensively last year and playing half their season on their turf only makes things tougher. Bringing in Rasmus should help, but the rest of the outfield will need to show up. Escobar can be very good in the hole and Lawrie showing promise, but to survive in the grueling AL East, the Jays can’t be giving the other teams extra outs. The Jays have the pitching, but can they convert the chances?
Bold prediction: Henderson Alvarez. The back end of the Jays rotation behind Romero and Morrow was ugly, with several guys swapping in and out throughout the season. Adding another solid starter to their young corps will push this team into another level and make them that much tougher to beat in a short series.
Team: Baltimore Orioles
Projected finish: Fifth
Season outlook: The perennial AL East cellar dwellers may be in for another long season, despite winning their “World Series” last year in knocking the Red Sox out of the playoffs. The team remains very young, but has some solid areas to build on. JJ Hardy turned out to be a bright spot for them last year, playing good defense while recording 30 HR. Nick Markakis, Adam Jones and Nolan Reimold make for a very good defensive outfield. Moving Jim Johnson to the closer’s role should better solidify their bullpen, as Johnson has nasty stuff and proved nearly unhittable in September.
With all this said, the team needs their young rotation to improve. Jake Arrieta, Brian Matusz and Zach Britton failed to impress in the fashion many experts had envisioned going into 2011. The Orioles front office added Wei-Yin Chen in the offseason from Japan, where he had a 2.48 ERA and 1.06 WHIP over the last four seasons. Offensively, the team was in the middle of the AL in 2011 and has a chance to improve considering Mark Reynolds, Matt Wieters, Markakis, Jones and Chris Davis are all in their prime. The addition of Wilson Betemit at DH should provide some situational pop as well.
Why they will win the East: In two words: They won’t. While the team has some promising areas, they simply can’t compete with the powerhouses ahead of them. The gap between the Jays and Orioles is tremendous. For the now, the Birds need to focus on developing their young arms (while keeping them healthy) and becoming more disciplined at the plate. That’s not to say they can’t play spoiler again this season.
Why they may falter: Inexperience. They’ll go as far as their young arms will take them, which, if it’s anything like 2011, isn’t far at all. If and when their rotation finds itself and the rest of the team meshes, this squad may have an outside shot at 80 wins, but that’s being extremely optimistic.
Bold prediction: Jim Johnson has the ability to record 40 saves. This may be tough, considering the team might not win much more than 60, but he certainly has the stuff to do so. I wouldn’t be surprised if a number of contenders hit the phones hard for Johnson come July.
Welcome to Baseball Focus!
Hey everyone,
I thought I’d start this blog off by explaining who we are and what we plan on accomplishing with Baseball Focus. Our main staff will consist of myself, Seth Needle, Roei Biberstain and Max Leonard. We all have a passion for baseball and look forward to building this site up and forming a strong following.
First, some background: Seth is a former Boston Globe high school sports reporter who also spent more than two years at Lions Gate Films and currently works at Screen Media Films in New York City. Roei is another former Globe reporter (or as we used to call ourselves- Hawks) and a huge sports enthusiast. I, like Seth and Roei, am a former Globe sports reporter and have spent the past few years as a Web editor and currently write regularly for NationalFootballAuthority.com. Max is our friend who will provide us with his quirky, outside-the-box views on the game. I’m not sure I know anyone who does more background research and knows more sports minutia than Max — he’ll be extremely valuable to this site. We will also have a host of interesting/funny contributors to keep things entertaining and fresh.
Baseball Focus will tackle baseball news coverage and analyze the game in depth with feature pieces while including some of our opinion and humor. Sure, we can be cheeky at times. But I can assure you we won’t be anything like Deadspin or TheBigLead, who make fun of, well, everything. Lastly, we plan on interacting with readers consistently, whether it be on the comment section or via social media.
Happy Opening Day!
Pat
Baseball Focus 