By Pat Ouellette, Baseball Focus Staff Writer

Team: Angels
Projected finish: First

Season outlook: Not unlike the 2011 Red Sox coming out of spring training, this year’s Angels team is a rock-star group and World Series favorite after a huge offseason. However, Los Angeles hopes the final results are better than that of Boston last season.

Signing one of the great hitters of all time in Albert Pujols and adding former Rangers ace CJ Wilson as a No. 3 or 4 starter will create the type of excitement that generates talk of a 100-win team. The Los Angeles rotation already features one of the most formidable 1-2 punches in baseball in Jered Weaver and Dan Haren, and the talented (albeit inconsistent) Ervin Santana. Tack on the return of Kendrys Morales (34 home runs in 2009) after a year and a half on the DL and you start to realize that the Angels hype is real. Los Angeles has loads of talent in all phases of the game and is a favorite to reach the World Series for the second time in team history.

Why they can win the West: Signing Pujols will certainly aid an offense that lagged at times last season and had only the 17th most runs scored in baseball; but this team can be special because of its vaunted rotation. The Angels’ starting pitching is deep, talented and durable (all four with more than 200 innings pitched during each of the past two seasons). Aside from maybe the Rays or Phillies, no rotation in baseball is better equipped to handle 162 games than the Angels.

Unlike the Phillies and Rays, however, offense shouldn’t be much of an issue for the Angels. With Pujols on board, Morales returning to health and a maturing Mark Trumbo (29 home runs in 2011), the Angels will be far less reliant on aging veterans Torii Hunter, Vernon Wells and Bobby Abreu.

An underrated weapon on this Los Angeles team is its solid middle bullpen, led by Scott Downs, who proved to be worth his three-year contract with a 1.34 ERA last season. Behind him are the ageless but solid LaTroy Hawkins (seems like it was just yesterday he was racking up 6+ ERA seasons with the Twins, huh?), Hisanori Takahashi and Kevin Jepsen. The man who comes after them, however, is the one to be worried about (see below).

Why they may falter: Closer Jordan Walden may be the weak link on an otherwise impressive staff. Walden did rack up 32 saves last season, but his command is an issue. He walked 26 in 60 innings in 2011, which is a poor number when you consider Haren gave out 33 free passes in 238 innings. Walking that many batters is playing with fire, and the worst thing that can happen to the Angels is an unreliable closer, so keep an eye on Walden’s walk rate early on.

Bold Prediction:

You’ve heard about five-tool outfielder Mike Trout and know he’s a top-three prospect in baseball. In fact, he’s going to start the season in the Angels minor leagues. But when will this phenom reach the majors for good and start living up to his potential? In short, as soon as the Angels either get rid of Abreu or Wells, or have the sense to sit them and get Trout into their outfield, where he’ll reside for the near future. Whenever Trout does reach the big leagues in a full-time capacity, look for the same type of impact that Jacoby Ellsbury had on the Red Sox late in 2007 and in 2008. Having a young stud who can do everything on the field will invigorate an already-talented club and ensure the lineup is more than just the Pujols show.

Team: Rangers
Projected finish: Second

Season outlook: The Rangers have won back-to-back AL West titles and captured a pair of AL pennants in the process – and they aren’t even favored to repeat as AL West champions? Such is life when your rival steals your ace starting pitcher (CJ Wilson) and happen to ink mega-star Albert Pujols.

While the Rangers lost one top-flight pitcher in Wilson, they hope to have replaced him with an even better one in Asian import Yu Darvish. Darvish brings with him attention reminiscent of Daisuke Matsuzaka debut back in 2007, and has the stuff to back it up. Beyond Darvish and closer Joe Nathan, the Rangers weren’t too active on the free agent market this offseason and chose to build within. After watching the Texas front office develop the likes of Ian Kinsler, Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz and Derek Holland while giving second life to Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz, who can blame them?

Why they can win the West: Texas slotted Feliz in the back of their rotation after recording 30+ saves in both 2010 and 2011, but the hope is that his electric stuff will translate to that of an upper-tier starter. Both Feliz and Darvish are huge “ifs,” and in the instance they pan out as reliable starters, the Rangers rotation becomes dangerous. Furthermore, Holland had a solid 16 win season in 2011 and came of age in the postseason, posting a 2-0 record and 3.38 ERA. Combining the Rangers offense with Holland potentially taking the next step, and Darvish and Feliz bringing the goods, and Texas can stay right with the Angels in the West.

The fact that this Rangers team could improve upon an offense that scored the third-most runs in baseball last year is downright frightening. Former AL MVP Hamilton is in his contract year and Cruz (8 home runs in the 2011 playoffs), Kinsler and Mike Napoli are all in their absolute primes, so Texas will have no problem getting runs across the plate.

Why they may falter: The same exact reason why they can win their third-straight division title: Starting pitching. Because of Matsuzaka’s general failings as a reliable starter, it’s hard to trust Darvish to be a complete success. Darvish looked solid during spring training, but so did Matsuzaka at times during his Red Sox career. Inconsistency killed Matsuzaka and, unfairly or not, we need to see that Darvish can get through more than six innings, and that won’t fatigue throughout the season. Much of the same can be said for Feliz, who will be working with a pitch count early on in 2011 and likely an innings cap. He will need to be a starting pitcher that Texas can rely on in order for the Rangers to be a force in the West.

Bold prediction: Joe Nathan has the resume of a great closer (261 career saves) and gritted out 2011 with determination after missing 2010 because of Tommy John surgery. However, the most talent in the Rangers bullpen belongs to reliever-turned-starter-turned-reliever Alexi Ogando. Ogando recorded a 1.30 ERA in the Rangers bullpen in 2010 with 39 strikeouts in 41 innings. Nathan is a huge injury risk and Ogando will likely assume the closer’s role by season’s end.

Team: Mariners
Projected finish: Third

Season Outlook: There are so many teams rebuilding in baseball, normally the Royals and Pirates, they’re often hard to keep track of. However, the Mariners are one team you will want to keep an eye on late in 2012 going into 2013. Seattle has a trio of young prospects – Danny Hultzen, James Paxton and Taijuan Walker – that may as well be dubbed “Generation K Revisited.” All three have live fastballs and nasty breaking pitches, but unfortunately are unlikely to see the big leagues in 2012.

As for this season, the Mariners shook things up this offseason by dealing young starting pitcher Michael Pineda for Yankees catcher/DH Jesus Montero. Seattle recognized that it has lacked big bats since the early 2000s, and gave up a rich bounty in Pineda, but Montero is a special hitter who will compete for batting titles and hit with power.

Why they can win the West: While the Montero deal was critical to Seattle’s success down the road, it will hurt them in the short term. With no Pineda, the rotation gets dicey after ace Felix Hernandez and solid starter Jason Vargas. Simply put, if Kevin Millwood is your No. 3 starter, your rotation has issues. With Pineda, at least the Mariners had a puncher’s chance of winning with a great 1-2 combination.
But with a dearth of pitching and an offense that will struggle beyond Ichiro, Justin Smoak, Dustin Ackley and Montero, Seattle has little chance of winning the West. That said, watching those three young hitters develop will be a treat for Mariner fans.

Why they may falter: The Mariners just don’t have the guns on offense or in the rotation to keep up with the Angels or Rangers. If nothing else, Seattle should learn from Baltimore’s mistakes of bringing up starting pitching too early and ruining their confidence. Things are going in the right direction for the Mariners for the first time in years and they shouldn’t potentially hurt that by trying to develop their young starters too quickly.

Bold prediction: Ichiro will return to his .300-hitting self and once again rack up 200 hits as though it were a common accomplishment. He looked energized this spring by all the young talent surrounding him and will want to stick around for when Seattle returns to prominence.

Team: Oakland A’s
Projected Finish: fourth

Season outlook: It was an interesting offseason for Billy Beane and the A’s. Similar to Hudson and Mulder almost 10 years ago, Beane traded his top two starting pitchers in Trevor Cahill and Gio Gonzalez, and closer Andrew Bailey for some talented prospects. But he also signed Cuban defector and YouTube sensation Yoenis Cespedes to a four-year $36 million contract, which was a completely out-of-character move for Oakland. Cespedes is talented, but doesn’t really fit into the A’s value model of building from within and dealing players nearing the end of arbitration for prospects.

So where does that leave the A’s? Unfortunately for them, they’re still in no-man’s land. They have a limited payroll, no true ace to speak of (Brandon McCarthy is a solid pitcher and not an ace) and lost the sole run producer in 2011 in Josh Willingham (29 home runs and 98 RBI) to free agency. One positive for the A’s so far is their accuracy regarding Andrew Bailey’s propensity to get injured, as their former closer is currently out until July or August for the Red Sox.

Beane has gone out of his way to explain that the “Moneyball” approach has extended to the
base paths and put an emphasis on speed. The Oakland offense will revolve around second
baseman Jemile Weeks, who was the only A’s player to hit .300 in 2011, Coco Crisp (49 steals
in 2011) and Cespedes.

Why they can win the West: I don’t believe we have enough space here to describe the types of things that would have to go right for the A’s to win the West. Frankly, it’s not happening, and this team is building toward 2013.

Why does 2013 look bright? Because those prospects they received for Cahill and Gonzalez are pretty good. Jarrod Parker, who came off of Tommy John surgery within the past couple of years, is the true stud of the group. Parker added a two-seamer late last year to his fastball-slider-changeup repertoire and has the makeup of a top-flight starter. He was battling for the No. 5 spot in the rotation until the end of camp, but will be with the A’s sooner rather than later. Oakland also received pitchers Brad Peacock and Tommy Milone in the Gonzalez deal, both of whom project to be mid-rotation starters. The A’s received good value for two pitchers who were likely to cash in elsewhere,  and we’ll find out over the next two years whether they were the right deals.

Why they may falter: Since Miguel Tejada left and Eric Chavez’s career was decimated by injuries, Oakland has had trouble filling the offensive void. Sure, they’ve had success with one-year players such as Frank Thomas and Willingham, but haven’t brought in a hitter who will be productive long-term in a long time.

Regardless of how raw it is, and not having Brett Anderson back until July or August (lost to Tommy John surgery in 2011), the A’s have pitching with the potential to be very good. The reason they won’t even come close to competing now, or until Cespedes develops, is they don’t even have one power bat to hang with the powers of the West.

Bold prediction: Bartolo Colon loses 100 pounds and stays healthy. Ahh, just kidding. That’s a bit too bold, even for this section. Josh Reddick, acquired by the A’s for Bailey, will become a fan favorite in Oakland. Reddick not only plays hard, but will approach 20 home runs while providing solid defense in right field for the A’s.